Bitcoin and S&P 500 Show Moderate Bull Correlation

CryptoQuant analyst Axel reports that, as of October 2025, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are in the late bull market stage, showing a 52-week return rate of +13%.

This situation underscores investor confidence as corporate earnings rise, though macroeconomic shifts could swiftly alter the current positive market sentiment.

Bitcoin’s All-Time Highs and Institutional Inflows

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has highlighted a moderate correlation between Bitcoin and equities. The current bull market state is characterized by a 13% return on the S&P 500 over the last year. Corporate earnings season has become a focal point, with all companies exceeding expectations.

Increased focus on earnings during Q4 2025 continues to boost market sentiment. Inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and a significant rise in institutional interest have contributed to BTC reaching new record levels. The bullish sentiment impacts major cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum and BNB at all-time highs.

Arthur Hayes, Co-founder of BitMEX, stated, “Structural flows—especially ETF and treasury allocations—are the real bull market fuel. Macro correlation is a symptom, not a cause.”

Correlation Trends and Market Expert Insights

Did you know? The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is not a new phenomenon. In 2020, both assets dipped together during the COVID crash but also showed swift decorrelation during recovery phases.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s price stands at $109,739.64, with a market cap of $2.19 trillion. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has risen by 1.27%, while the trading volume has decreased by 27.30%. The cryptocurrency’s market dominance is at 59.15%.

Insights from Coincu Research suggest that the continued growth of Bitcoin ETFs could lead to further institutional investments. Analysts attribute the current rally to ETF inflows and strong corporate earnings, observing that any shifts in macroeconomic conditions might impact this momentum.