Bitcoin analyst gives ‘final warning’ before ‘major crash’ to this low

A cryptocurrency analyst has warned that key fundamentals and technical indicators are signaling a possible major downturn for Bitcoin (BTC) despite the leading digital asset attempting to push further above $60,000.

Alan Santana noted that the primary signal for the correction lies in Bitcoin’s repeated failure to sustain key support levels, particularly the 200-day moving average, which closed below in late September, he said in a TradingView post on October 5.

At the same time, Bitcoin has been trapped in a descending channel, forming lower highs and lower lows since early April. The most recent touch of the upper trendline, around the $65,000 mark, was followed by another downturn, indicating further bearish pressure.

“This is likely the final warning before a major crash, a long-term bearish continuation move.<…> Bitcoin has been going down for almost 7 months and is about to reach the climax of the corrective phase, a.k.a., a massive crash,” he said. 

The analysis suggested that Bitcoin’s consolidation over the last seven months is entering a critical phase. The cryptocurrency has not generated upward momentum since peaking earlier this year.

He asserted that geopolitical instability, especially in the Middle East, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and increasing Tether dominance, which typically inversely correlate with Bitcoin, are compounding bearish pressures.

Adding to the gloomy outlook, Santana pointed out that broader financial markets are showing signs of weakness. With the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts and global stock markets faltering, Bitcoin appears primed for a dramatic downturn.

Historical trends also indicate that Bitcoin could see significant volatility ahead of the presidential elections, making the current environment increasingly treacherous for leveraged traders.

Bitcoin’s next price target

To this end, Santana projected that Bitcoin could potentially drop to around the $40,000 level or below. Such a drop could culminate in months-long bearish consolidation, leading to what Santana describes as “the climax” of Bitcoin’s corrective phase.

Although Santana is foreseeing a possible bearish signal, another analyst, TradingShot, believes that Bitcoin is gearing up for a significant rally. As reported by Finbold, the analyst noted that Bitcoin’s ‘cup and handle’ formation is in full motion, setting the next price target at above $90,000 by the end of the year.

Another analyst, CryptoCon, also shared the bullish outlook. In an X post on October 3, CryptoCon noted that Bitcoin’s rally is around the corner, pointing to November 28, 2024.

This prediction aligns with Bitcoin’s halving cycles. The analysis highlighted Bitcoin’s historical price patterns linked to its halving events, showing significant price upswings after each halving. These surges follow a sine wave-like pattern, with the steepest gains typically starting in what is referred to as the “red year” — the first 12 months following the halving.

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin recently faced a notable correction amid the geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The drop raised questions about the asset’s ability to hedge in an environment dominated by conflicts, similar to gold. At the same time, the decline has sparked concerns about whether Bitcoin will likely tap into the ‘Uptober’ momentum, where the asset tends to rally in October.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin was trading at $62,2100 by press time, with daily gains of about 1.4%. On the weekly chart, the digital asset is down almost 5.5%.

In summary, Bitcoin remains at a crucial juncture in its price trajectory, with the potential to move in either direction. Investors should closely monitor the $60,000 level, as a drop below this threshold could signal further losses.