- Bitcoin (BTC) leads crypto rebound to ~$115.7K as US-China trade deal hopes reduce fear
- Crucial week ahead with potential Fed QT end and FOMC rate decision driving volatility
- Analyst Gambardello warns unfilled BTC CME gap near $110K poses midterm pullback risk
Bitcoin (BTC) spearheaded a broad crypto market rebound, climbing decisively above $115,000 as optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal eased recent market fears.
BTC registered five consecutive daily gains to trade near $115,679 during the early London session Monday, pulling the total crypto market cap up 3.7% toward $3.9 trillion. This recovery significantly dialed back fears of further correction, reflected in a rising CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index.
Related: Fed Balance Sheet Pivot Raises Altseason Odds if BTC.D Softens
Reasons why Crypto is Up Today
US-China Trade Deal Sparks Short Squeeze
The crypto market gained today largely due to the U.S.-China trade deal. More than $469 million was rekt from leveraged crypto traders today, with the majority involving short traders.
The recent macro fear caused an escalation U.S.-China trade war has significantly declined. The wider crypto market followed the NASDAQ 100 futures and the S&P 500 in mild gains as investors turned bullish.
Positive macro news for crypto this week
During the next seven days, the crypto market will certainly experience higher volatility; thus, leveraged traders are cautioned to stay vigilant. Although the U.S. economic data may be impacted by the ongoing government shutdown, here are several high-impact macroeconomic news will impact the crypto industry this week:
- Expected end of quantitative tightening (QT) this week.
- The Federal Funds Rate and FOMC statement.
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy rate, Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy report.
- Tariff deadlines amid trade deals.
- Fed expected to print $1.5 trillion to kickstart its Quantitative Easing (QE) phase.
Gambardello’s Midterm Warning: Unfilled BTC CME Gap ($110K) Looms
Despite the positive price action and potentially bullish macro backdrop, analyst Dan Gambardello offered a note of midterm caution centered on the Bitcoin CME futures chart.
He pointed out a significant unfilled CME gap exists with a lower bound near $110,000. CME gaps represent price differences between the closing price on Friday and the opening price on Sunday/Monday on the CME Bitcoin futures market. Historically, these gaps often tend to get “filled,” meaning the price revisits that level.
Gambardello suggested this $110k gap could act as a magnet, potentially pulling the price back down or capping the current rally in the near term before a more sustained move higher. While not guaranteed, it represents a technical risk factor that could delay a potential “Uptober” surge, even if the monthly close remains bullish.
Spotting the Top: Gambardello on Monthly RSI & Gold Correlation Signals
Looking beyond the immediate week, Gambardello, who believes the market is still in the early stages of a euphoric bull phase, shared insights on identifying the eventual cycle peak. He stressed two key macro indicators:
- 1. Monthly RSI Bearish Divergence: Gambardello noted that previous major Bitcoin bull market tops were often preceded by a bearish divergence on the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI). This occurs when the price makes a new high, but the RSI fails to reach a corresponding new high, signaling weakening momentum despite the peak price.
- 2. Gold vs. Bitcoin Correlation Shift: He also highlighted the relationship between Gold and Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin tends to top out before Gold makes its final surge in a macro cycle. Therefore, monitoring Gold’s price action relative to its all-time high after Bitcoin potentially makes new highs could provide a crucial signal for the end of the crypto bull run. Once Gold begins a strong rally after Bitcoin peaks, it might indicate the broader risk cycle is turning.
Related: Bitcoin Hovering at $110K Doesn’t Signal a Peak, Says Van de Poppe
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Source: https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-price-today-policy-week-outlook/