October 2025 was supposed to be “Uptober” once again, the month historically favorable to crypto. Instead, it became synonymous with one of the worst crashes of the last decade. Between October 5th and 7th, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs in the $124,000-$126,000 range, only to begin a decline that, by the end of November, wiped out about a third of its value and over $1 trillion in market capitalization.
Figure 1 – Bitcoin Crash in October 2025.
The peak of tension was concentrated over the weekend of October 10-12. In just a few hours, Bitcoin plummeted below $105,000, Ethereum lost around 11-12 percent, and many altcoins experienced drawdowns between 40 and 70 percent, in some cases with flash crashes nearly to zero on less liquid pairs. More than just a simple correction, it was a brutal deleveraging event that exposed the structural vulnerabilities of the market.
As we enter the final part of 2025, Bitcoin is now fluctuating well below its highs, around $90,000-93,000, approximately 25-27 percent below the October peak, in a macro context marked by rate cuts from the Fed, but also by a sentiment that remains clearly cautious across the entire crypto sector.
The question everyone is asking is simple: has the worst passed, or could the end of the year bring another bearish leg?
To understand what to expect by the end of the year, it’s essential to first clearly outline what has happened. Several reports agree on some key points. Between October 10th and 11th, the market experienced one of the most violent sell-offs ever: within less than 24 hours, leveraged positions worth between 17 and 19 billion dollars were liquidated, involving up to 1.6 million traders worldwide.
The immediate trigger was political and external to the crypto world. The surprise announcement of tariffs up to 100 percent on Chinese imports by the Trump administration sparked a wave of risk aversion in global markets. Cryptos, typically among the assets most sensitive to sentiment, were at the forefront: those with excessively leveraged positions did not have time to react before margin calls and automatic liquidations took over.
This mechanism turned a macro news event into a technical avalanche. Prices broke through support levels one after another, algorithms accelerated sales, and many exchanges found themselves managing orders in a suddenly much thinner liquidity environment. The result was a panic atmosphere reminiscent of the “crypto winter” of 2022, with the difference that this time it wasn’t a single major project collapsing, but the entire complex of leveraged exposures.
The real causes of the crypto crash: macro, leverage, and political factors
Reducing the crash to just the announcement of tariffs would be misleading. That news was the spark, but the powder keg was already set. For months, the market had been pricing in a delicate balance between a super-cycle bull narrative and a macro reality filled with mixed signals. On one hand, the Fed’s rate cuts and asset purchase programs suggested a return of liquidity. On the other, official communications remained cautious, with a clear message: do not expect new “easy money” without conditions.
In this context, the massive use of leverage has made the system extremely fragile. When the price began to fall, the forced unwinding of these positions amplified the movement far beyond what the macro news alone would have justified.
There is also a psychological element. After months of discussing Bitcoin surpassing $150,000 and the crypto market capitalization reaching $5 or $10 trillion, a significant portion of traders had become convinced that the path was almost inevitable, with timing being the only uncertainty. When reality contradicted those expectations, the misalignment between the “narrative” and “real prices” turned doubt into panic, especially among those who entered late and in full euphoria.
Bitcoin and Crypto After the Crash: Possible Scenarios for the End of 2025
Looking ahead to the coming weeks, it is useful to think in terms of scenarios, not precise forecasts.
The first scenario envisions a market gradually absorbing the shock. Some reports already suggest a slow return of accumulation by long-term holders and rebalancing strategies that increase exposure to Bitcoin and a few large caps at the expense of more speculative altcoins.
The second scenario is that of a prolonged phase of nervous lateralization. Essentially, the market stops crashing but struggles to truly rebound. This is the typical phase where those with a short-term horizon suffer, as false signals multiply and intraday volatility does not translate into genuine medium-term directionality.
The third scenario, the most feared one, anticipates a new bearish leg. In such a context, it would not be surprising to see Bitcoin testing the $70,000-$80,000 area more decisively, while a portion of the altcoin market might experience depressed volumes and few positive catalysts in the short term.
As often happens, reality might lie in a dynamic combination of these scenarios: a partial recovery followed by phases of congestion and new waves of volatility linked to decisions by the Fed, ECB, and political news.
Bitcoin Seasonality: What Historical Data Says About the Last Quarter
From the perspective of a systematic trader, relying on statistics and data analysis, one might consider using the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as a reference and analyze its monthly seasonality, particularly in the latter part of the year. The chart below shows the average trend of BTC from 2017 to 2024 (calculated with Bias FinderTM, proprietary software of the Unger Academy®).
Figure 2 – Monthly seasonality of Bitcoin from 2017 to 2024.
It is evident that the end of the year tends to be bullish on average over the last 8 years, albeit with some volatility, which is justified when looking at individual years separately (see Figure 3), where we observe final quarters with strong rallies combined with others experiencing significant declines.
Figure 3 – Monthly seasonality of Bitcoin by year.
How Institutional Investors and the Crypto Sector are Reacting
A new element compared to previous cycles is the more structured presence of institutional capital. Many funds that in 2021-2022 dealt with cryptocurrencies almost solely from a speculative perspective now incorporate them into broader macro and diversification strategies. Despite the October drawdown, indications from various desks suggest more about rebalancing and hedging rather than a definitive exit from the asset class.
At the same time, the October incident has shone more than one spotlight. Authorities already working on frameworks for spot ETFs and stablecoins see what happened as confirmation that the issue is no longer whether to regulate the sector, but how to do so without stifling innovation. Some proposals involve greater transparency on leverage, stricter risk management requirements for exchanges, and uniform reporting standards for institutional operators exposed to cryptocurrencies.
Conclusions: What to Expect from the Crypto Market at the End of 2025
The October 2025 crash is not just another chapter in the long history of crypto volatility. In terms of magnitude, causes, and consequences, it is a crucial test of the sector’s maturity. It demonstrated how a single political shock can propagate within minutes across a globalized, highly interconnected ecosystem still dominated by very aggressive leverage dynamics. However, it also reminded us that the market is capable of remaining liquid and operational even under extreme pressure, and that the presence of institutional players tends to transform the “all or nothing” approach of the past into a more gradual rebalancing process.
Looking towards the end of the year, the key for investors is not to guess the exact price of Bitcoin in December, but to recognize the nature of this phase. On one hand, there is a tangible risk of new shocks, fueled by macro-uncertainty and geopolitics. On the other hand, there are signs that the crash has accelerated the natural selection between solid projects and pure speculation that the market had been postponing for some time.
Cryptocurrencies remain a high-risk asset, where leverage must be handled with extreme caution, especially when the macro context is complex. And precisely because volatility is intrinsic, those who decide to stay in the game must do so with a clear horizon, rigorous risk management, and the awareness that moments like October 2025 are not a bump in the road, but a structural component of the crypto cycle.
Until next time, and happy trading!
Andrea Unger