Bitcoin – 77% odds of BTC hitting $130K amid ‘debasement trade’

Key Takeaways

Why are analysts bullish on BTC in Q4 2025 and early 2026?

U.S. fiscal debt and policy concerns could fuel BTC and other safe havens. 

What’s the most conservative BTC price target? 

There was a 77% chance of hitting $130K this year. 

Bitcoin [BTC] printed another ATH (all-time high) above $126K on the 6th of October. The cryptocurrency had cooled off to $122K as of the time of writing.

Still, the market was pricing a 77% chance of rallying to $130K. 

Source: Polymarket

According to analysts, the ongoing investor interest in gold, silver, and Bitcoin, the so-called ‘debasement trade,’ could boost the crypto asset.  

The ‘debasement trade’ effect

The term was first introduced by JPMorgan analysts, who noted that investors were growing increasingly concerned about U.S. fiscal policy and rising debt levels. 

In response, many began turning to traditional safe-haven assets to hedge against exposure to the U.S. dollar.

Gold, in particular, has surged since August, jumping 11% in September following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. It has since added another 3% and is now approaching the $4,000 mark. 

This rally highlights deepening investor anxiety over the state of the U.S. economy and its fiscal outlook.

In a recent Bloomberg interview, Ken Griffin, founder of hedge fund Citadel, called it the ‘de-dollarizing’ from U.S. risk. 

“We’re seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for ways to effectively de-dollarize, or de-risk their portfolios vis-a-vis U.S. sovereign risk.”

In most cases, BTC always lags behind gold rallies, but tends to play catch-up later on. 

Another macro data set that supported a potential BTC surge was the rising bond yields.

These are interest rates paid by the U.S. government on its borrowed loans. A rate spike always flags investor uneasiness with the government’s overall policy direction. 

Source: Streno Research

That said, some analysts believe that President Donald Trump will replace Fed chair Jerome Powell in early 2026 to help manage the bond yields. But a potential investor flight from such a move could lift BTC and gold higher. 

In fact, Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz projected that the crypto asset could explode to $200K if Powell is replaced with a more dovish nominee in early 2026. 

In the near-term, however, the Swissblock analysts forecast a likely BTC consolidation above $117K-$120K, before extending the rally. 

“What is the key this week? Hold structure, cool momentum, and build the base for Q4 expansion.”

Source: Swissblock