 
 
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is not disappearing, but its engine is changing.
According to 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen, market peaks are now aligning less with halving events and more closely with political cycles and liquidity conditions.
The shift shows that Bitcoin has matured into a macro-sensitive asset influenced more by policy expectations than by protocol mechanics.
Recent price action highlights that transition. Bitcoin briefly rallied after the latest Federal Reserve rate cut, only to reverse sharply as Chair Jerome Powell paired dovish remarks with guidance suggesting fewer rate cuts ahead.
The mixed messaging left markets unsettled, as traders recalibrated expectations for liquidity rather than celebrating the cut itself. Thielen argues that this mirrors prior election-cycle patterns, in which rallies fade as policy uncertainty rises and the Fed signals restraint.
 
Moreover, in both 2019 and the most recent cycle, Bitcoin’s strongest advances coincided with periods of expanding liquidity tied to political developments rather than halving milestones.
The 10x Research CEO notes that midterm election phases have often marked consolidation zones for risk assets, including Bitcoin. That pattern is repeating, with the asset recently breaking below its long-running bull channel and struggling to regain momentum.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed compared to last year, while on-chain metrics show net inflows weakening for the first time since mid 2023.
As market capitalization grows, larger and more consistent capital injections are required to sustain upside. Without them, rallies tend to stall quickly.
As it stands, Bitcoin is behaving less like a mechanically driven scarcity trade and more like a barometer for macro confidence. Political uncertainty, election timelines, and central bank balance sheet decisions are now central to the cycle.
That said, halvings still matter, but they are no longer the dominant force. Today, liquidity leads, politics amplifies it, and Bitcoin follows.