Bitcoin $100K Odds Surge as Charts Signal Repeat Rebound

Prediction markets now put Bitcoin’s January finish above $100,000 as the most likely outcome, while a separate technical chart shows BTC replaying a prior rebound setup. Together, the data points to bullish positioning near a key psychological level as traders watch whether the latest breakout holds.

 Bitcoin $100K Odds Rise as Traders Price January Rebound

Bitcoin traders pushed probabilities toward a six-figure January close as prediction markets showed growing confidence in a rebound narrative tied to U.S. liquidity expectations. Data displayed by Opinion Labs shows a 59.4% chance that Bitcoin trades at or above $100,000 by Jan. 31, based on spot BTC/USDT one-minute candles used as the reference price. The same market assigns a 24.1% probability to $105,000 and 8.1% to $110,000, while downside outcomes near $85,000 hold about a 15.1% chance.

Bitcoin January $100K Odds Market. Source: Opinion Labs

The image indicates the $100,000 outcome attracted the largest share of volume among listed contracts, with bids and asks clustered tightly around the prevailing probability. In contrast, higher targets carry thinner liquidity and lower implied odds, suggesting traders concentrate risk around the round-number level rather than a rapid extension. Meanwhile, bearish scenarios below $90,000 draw comparatively limited participation, signaling reduced conviction in a sharp January pullback.

Arthur Hayes added fuel to the upside case in a post highlighted alongside the market data, saying he expects a strong Bitcoin rebound as U.S. dollar liquidity expands under the Trump administration. Hayes linked the outlook to policy conditions rather than near-term technicals, framing liquidity as a key driver for risk assets. Markets reflected that view by lifting the $100,000 contract during mid-January trading, while probabilities for higher strikes moved more modestly.

Overall, the snapshot shows sentiment leaning constructive but selective. Traders favor a reclaim of $100,000 without aggressively pricing an immediate surge beyond it, and they continue to hedge with smaller positions across higher and lower ranges as January progresses.

Bitcoin Chart Flags Repeat Setup as BTC Reclaims Key Averages

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s latest rebound is drawing comparisons to an earlier recovery phase, based on a chart shared by crypto analyst Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) that argues “history repeating.”

Bitcoin History Repeating Chart. Source: CryptoJelleNL/X

The chart shows Bitcoin sliding into a base, then reversing once price regains a moving average ribbon and clears a descending trendline. On the earlier sequence, marked on the left side, Bitcoin fell through March and April 2025 before stabilizing. Price then reclaimed the moving average band, and the ribbon shifted from resistance to support, which preceded a broader advance into mid-2025.

A similar structure appears on the right side covering late 2025 into early 2026. Bitcoin dropped sharply into November, then traded sideways through December. It later broke above the downtrend line and moved back above the moving average ribbon. The chart lists Bitcoin near $96,562, while the ribbon levels sit around $92,113 and $90,083, which frame the nearest support zone if the breakout holds.