Key Insights:
- Michael Terpin projected Bitcoin USD price would triple from its 2024 halving price to approximately $180,000 before the current cycle peaked.
- The investor rejected claims that the bull market ended, citing sentiment at only 60% greed with minimal retail participation compared to historical cycle tops.
- Terpin named BNB as his preferred non-Bitcoin asset and forecasted that the next bear market would offer buying opportunities between $50,000 and $80,000.
Michael Terpin outlined his Bitcoin price target during a November 20 podcast with 21Shares, anchoring his forecast in what he called his “Four Seasons” halving-cycle framework.
The venture capitalist known as the “Crypto Godfather” maintained that Bitcoin remained on track to reach roughly $180,000 before the current cycle concluded.
Terpin rooted his projection in diminishing returns across successive post-halving cycles.
He traced the historical performance of Bitcoin USD through each halving, noting the first cycle produced approximately 100x gains, the second delivered around 30x, and the most recent achieved an eight-to-ten-fold increase.
He argued that the current cycle should follow this pattern, with a smaller multiple, but still deliver roughly three times the 2024 halving price.
Bitcoin Halving Price Framework
The 2024 BTC halving occurred with prices around the mid-$60,000 range. Terpin noted that the ETF-driven all-time high of $73,850 reached before the halving did not invalidate the cycle pattern but only delayed the prior cycle’s peak.
Using the halving price as an anchor point, he calculated that a threefold increase would bring Bitcoin to approximately $180,000.
Terpin framed this target as “plus or minus macro of 20%,” acknowledging that the band could extend higher if super-cycle dynamics emerged or lower if trade tensions and tariff concerns suppressed risk appetite.
He explicitly stated his current Bitcoin price projection remained at $180,000, representing upside from recent levels.
The investor dismissed suggestions that the bull market had already concluded. He pointed out that the recent Bitcoin USD high around $126,000 came with the Fear & Greed Index at only 60%, far below the extreme readings that typically marked cycle tops.
Terpin emphasized that retail investors had barely participated and that no fear-of-missing-out psychology had materialized.
He contrasted current conditions with historical cycle peaks, which arrived when the Fear & Greed Index approached 90 and retail capital flooded into BTC through ETFs and retirement accounts.
Terpin argued these conditions had not yet manifested, leaving room for a classic parabolic “summer” phase in the fourth quarter.
BNB Over Ethereum and Solana
When asked to choose between Ethereum and Solana, Terpin sidestepped both options and volunteered BNB, previously Binance Coin, as his preferred non-Bitcoin asset.
He justified the selection by pointing to the consistent ability of BNB to set new all-time highs in dollar terms. It contrasts with Ethereum’s failure to surpass previous peaks convincingly.
Terpin argued that most altcoins performed best during their first complete cycle relative to Bitcoin price. In addition, he noted that the altcoins have subsequently underperformed in later cycles, particularly in Bitcoin USD terms and increasingly in dollar terms.
He identified BNB as the sole asset in the top 25 tokens that had consistently achieved new highs.
The investor invoked the “never bet against Vitalik” meme and flipped it, stating “never bet against CZ” instead.
He expressed skepticism that Ethereum would maintain an unassailable competitive position, noting that shrinking portions of EVM activity were migrating to mainnet as value moved to EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchains and Layer 2 solutions.
Terpin suggested a “flipping” where Ethereum’s clones captured aggregate EVM usage appeared more plausible than Ethereum ever surpassing Bitcoin in market capitalization.
Bitcoin Price: Bear Market Buy Zone Forecast
Terpin also outlined his expectations for the subsequent bear market downturn. He projected Bitcoin price would experience a drawdown of approximately two-thirds from the cycle peak, consistent with historical patterns, even as volatility compressed in more recent cycles.
Translating this framework into price levels, Terpin calculated that a $180,000 peak would lead to prices around $60,000 for Bitcoin USD within roughly one year of the top.
He specified investors should expect opportunities to acquire BTC under $100,000 again, likely in the $50,000 to $80,000 range.
The forecast aligned with his Four Seasons model, in which capitulation historically corresponds with Fear & Greed Index readings around 10 and bottom-of-the-rainbow valuations.
Terpin cited the FTX collapse as a recent example in which Bitcoin price traded at $15,000 during peak fear, arguing that most investors missed that opportunity but would have a similar chance at higher absolute prices in the next downturn.
Terpin framed the anticipated bear market as offering patient buyers a substantial discount to his projected $180,000 peak, while remaining well above prior-cycle lows.
He maintained that the current four-year cycle remained intact despite recent volatility, with the parabolic phase still ahead before any genuine top formation.