Arthur Hayes Explains Why Bitcoin Has Likely Bottomed Out

In a recent Medium blog post, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes claims that Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has likely bottomed out.

Hayes argues that the forced selling of Bitcoin by centralized lending firms and Bitcoin miners is likely over. Those who had to liquidate their holdings would have done so already. Since most centralized crypto lenders are already underwater, they no longer mine loans or collateral to liquidate.

The bullish forecast of the former BitMEX CEO hinges on the assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to pivot to dovish monetary policies to stabilize the Treasury market in 2023. This should give a fillip to risk assets. 

Hayes has noted that open interest, the combined open positions across derivative exchanges, has dropped to the lowest level since early 2021. He does not rule out that OP could fall further if there is a sideways bear market. However, such a lethargic market is unlikely to produce large amounts of liquidations, which means that OI will not be changing at a fast pace.

Bitcoin plunged to a multi-year low of $15,479 on Nov. 21 following the scandalous downfall of the FTX exchange.

As reported by U.Today, Hayes tweeted that he was ready to buy Bitcoin at the $10,000 level on Nov. 16.