Ancient Bitcoin Whales ‘Still Sleeping’ with No Massive Flows to Exchanges Yet: CryptoQuant Analysis

A recent analysis by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju suggests that ancient Bitcoin whales—those holding BTC for over seven years—continue to hold their assets unmoved. 

According to him, these long-term investors are still “sleeping.” He highlighted that these dormant holders have historically had a significant influence on market volatility when they decide to move their Bitcoin, especially depending on whether the transfers are made to exchanges or private wallets.

Ki Young Ju’s data excludes outliers like Mt. Gox. It focused on genuine long-term holders who possess substantial amounts of Bitcoin. He noted that no significant deposits have been made by these whales to exchanges recently, indicating they may be waiting for more favorable market conditions.

Historical Trend of Ancient Bitcoin Whales

The historical charts accompanying the update illustrate how the movements of these early Bitcoin adopters have coincided with the asset’s all-time rallies in the last two market cycles.

For instance, in late 2017, when Bitcoin traded around its cycle peak of $20K, the activity of ancient Bitcoin holders mirrored this trend as it was also at its zenith. A similar trend unfolded in mid-2021 and late 2021.

However, in the current cycle, the trend has remained mostly flat and incomparable. Despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high in March, the activity of long-dormant Bitcoin whales did not fully reflect the excitement of the crypto market in the first quarter of 2024.

Similarly, Bitcoin flows to exchanges from these dormant whales have not been notable since Q4 2023, when this cycle’s bull trend gained momentum. In contrast, their flows to exchanges during Bitcoin’s peak rallies of 2017/2018 and 2020/2021 are clearly evident.

Is the Market Still Bullish?

Ki Young Ju has drawn attention to this data during a time of uncertainty. Market participants are divided on whether the market remains bullish or if the bear season has already begun. Bitcoin has shown unimpressive performance over the past seven months since its all-time high.

Essentially, Ki Young Ju seeks to highlight that, as most dormant whale wallets remain inactive, the Bitcoin market still has promising prospects for a fresh all-time high.

Meanwhile, as The Crypto Basic reported earlier, a reliable market indicator has suggested that the market may have likely reached a cycle peak in March, as Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio at the time aligned with the peaks of 2017 and 2021.

Small Ancient Bitcoin Wallets Becoming Active

It is worth noting that some dormant Bitcoin investors have become increasingly active in recent months. In October alone, Whale Alert documented five Bitcoin addresses that were reactivated, moving out millions of dollars in assets. 

According to the report, all the reactivated whales were last active at least 10.7 years ago. The most recent reawakening occurred today, with a whale moving out 121 BTC, now worth $7.53 million, originally worth $126, precisely 13.7 years ago.

💤 A dormant address containing 121 #BTC (7,525,999 USD) has just been activated after 13.7 years (worth 126 USD in 2011)!https://t.co/O0NGPDUob6

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) October 9, 2024