Bitcoin (BTC) prices may not return to early October highs for a long time if next week’s US spending data fails to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates.
This assessment came from Oleg Kalmanovich, analyst at the financial brokerage firm Neomarkets KZ.
Kalmanovich told Russia’s RBC media outlet that all eyes are on the US October retail sales data, which will be released on November 25, followed by personal consumption expenditures, which will be released on November 26.
“If the data comes in below expectations, the Fed could cut interest rates on December 10th, giving the market a chance to recover. Otherwise, the crypto market will remain under pressure. A full-fledged crypto spring will only be possible in the spring of 2026,” he said.
Speaking to RIA Novosti, Vasiliy Girya, owner and CEO of Russian mining company GIS Mining, said that current market data indicates that Bitcoin demand has resurged at $80,600. Girya noted that this demand has led to a slight price recovery, but cautioned, “It’s too early to see this move as the start of a sustainable trend reversal.”
According to Girya, the critical level for the short-term outlook is $87,000:
“If the price stays below this level before US stock markets open on Monday, we can say that a prolonged period of stagnation has begun. This would be the beginning of crypto winter.”
GIS Mining CEO stated that Bitcoin needs to return to the $93,000 level by Monday to avoid a cold close to the year.
“Such a recovery would restore trader confidence. From a technical perspective, this depth of correction would be enough to trigger a rebound. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode,” he said.
Kalmanovich, on the other hand, argued that institutional and wealthy investors were forced to rebalance their positions in favor of the dollar:
“This is reflected in an outflow from high-risk assets, including crypto funds.”
*This is not investment advice.