Analysts Say $250K Bitcoin Target May Falter as LTHs Take 130% Gains

In Brief

• Long-term holders realize 130% profits, signaling sustained Bitcoin selling pressure.
• Analysts warn bearish RSI divergence may limit Bitcoin’s path toward $250K.
• Historical data shows October–November average gains of +20% and +46% for BTC.

Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have significantly increased selling activity, raising concerns about continued upside momentum. According to CryptoQuant, LTHs have realized average profits of over 130%, with the current Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) sitting at 2.32.

The 7-day and 30-day moving average SOPRs have declined to 1.82 and 1.79, respectively, showing a cooling profit trend. While still above historical norms, these lower values suggest selling pressure could soon ease if profitability continues to decline.

Moreover, LTHs have already offloaded 265,715 BTC in the past 30 days, the highest monthly outflow since January 2025. Analyst JA_Maartun notes this selling follows heavy accumulation between May and July, when over 750,000 BTC was added.

This transition from accumulation to profit-taking could limit short-term upside, especially with Bitcoin trading near the $90,000 to $100,000 range. A further drop in realized profits may stabilize prices, though immediate bullish continuation appears uncertain.

Historical Patterns Support Year-End Gains, But RSI Divergence Clouds Outlook

Despite selling trends, historical seasonality favours Bitcoin’s strength in October and November. According to Coinglass data, average returns for these months stand at +20.15% and +46.02% respectively.

November 2024 saw a +37.29% gain, reinforcing this seasonal momentum. However, December typically posts weaker results, with average gains of only +4.75%, suggesting possible cooling after early Q4 rallies.

Technical indicators also warn of fading momentum. Analyst Ali charts reports a bearish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s weekly chart as the RSI trends downward despite higher price highs.

This setup mirrors the 2021 market peak, where price gains outpaced declining momentum before a major correction. Without renewed buying volume, Bitcoin’s path to the $250,000 target may face increasing resistance.

Together, strong seasonal trends and long-term holder activity present a mixed near-term outlook. Traders may need confirmation from volume and macro shifts to maintain a bullish case.