Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Could Do a 72% Upside, Can It?

Bitcoin price action now sits at a critical juncture, with analysts saying its price could replicate historical bull cycles. A prominent analyst hailed Bitcoin’s chances of moving and surpassing the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level, currently at $164,815.40.

Usually, Bitcoin’s bulls break these extension levels during its bull market, acting as significant milestones in its price history. Bitcoin could gain between 72% from its present levels if we remain in the current market momentum.

The 1.618 Fibonacci extension is where markets typically try to peak before buckling and heading into a correction. This level has proven to be a good indicator of each of Bitcoin’s bull runs of 2011-2013, 2015–2017, and 2018–2021. Analysts say Bitcoin is following a pattern with its history. If this extension turns out to be the next significant resistance, it will be a market cooldown.

Bitcoin’s rally started in 2017 after an ugly 2021 bear market. It has regained several important keys and reclaimed the $69,000 high mark from its last cycle.

Although this progress has been made, the market is waiting for a decisive push to new all-time highs, and the 1.618 Fib Extension is the psychological and technical target for bullish traders.

Resistance at $95K Continues to Challenge Bitcoin Price

Although optimism is in the air over Bitcoin’s potential, its inability to overcome the $95,000 resistance level threatens to dash bullish momentum. In recent weeks, price action has become trapped someplace underneath this level, which acts as a psychological barrier and a technical ceiling. The rally has left traders wondering whether the market can continue on, but nonetheless, they’re optimistic about the so-called ‘exit ramp’ to a new Coffee for Bitcoin.

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The 4-hour Bitcoin chart shows more about this resistance. Secondary resistance to upward momentum is found in the median of moving averages across the 50, 100, and 200 periods, which moves around $96,000.

By combining moving averages, we have a zone of resistance that Bitcoin needs to break above before targeting higher levels. In addition, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which gauges buying and selling pressure, is at 37, showing a weak demand compared with supply.

Analysts say a volume breakout above $95,00 could reignite bullish sentiment and lift Bitcoin to test the $100,000 psychological level. Nevertheless, Bitcoin could fall off a cliff if the resistance does hold, potentially retracing back to support levels near $90,000.

Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis

The broader market outlook for Bitcoin is still cautiously optimistic. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) show that Bitcoin is still in the mid-cycle. These metrics, which measure market sentiment and profitability, suggest that Bitcoin hasn’t yet crossed the line into the ‘overheated’ territory that usually reaches the tops of bull markets.

If the MVRV NUPL indicator reaches the 95th percentile, it means the market is overheating, said CryptoQuant. Once sentiment turns sour, long-term holders (LTHs) tend to take their profits, the ETF inflow pauses, and investor behavior changes to caution. However, given that Bitcoin’s price is still below this threshold, the market can grow further before reaching levels that will be considered euphoric (ironic).

However, analysts caution that the signs of a correction are minor and can go quickly. Significant market pullback will be followed by monitoring factors like a lot of Bitcoin holder activity, ETF inflows, and the performance of correlated equities such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares, among other indicators. Historically, these indicators have acted as good signals for the onset of the correction phase.

Bitcoin’s historical performance during bull markets grounds its ability for Bitcoin to have a 75% upside from present price levels. According to past cycles, BITCOIN often falls into parabolic growth after reclaiming crucial Fibonacci levels. According to analysts, if current trends continue, Bitcoin may hit the 1.618 Fib Extension at $164,815.40 within the next few months.