Analyst Expects BTC to Retrace by -30% to $20K, Will It?

• Crypto Trader observes a retracement pattern 180 days before halving.
• The 2016 spike seems to be greater than the 2020 spike, the 2024 spike could be lesser.
• BTC has made higher lows since the beginning of 2023 and may reach more than $31.5K.

Crypto Trader and Analyst Rekt Capital tweeted that BTC could go through a period of retracement soon. As such, the analyst expects it to retrace by -30% whereby BTC could reach somewhere as low as $20,000.

The analyst supplemented this notion by considering the pre-halving phase, where BTC retraced by -25 in 2015/2016 and -38 in 2019. In particular, BTC was retracing 180 days prior to BTC halving, hence, as there are approximately 180 days for BTC halving from now, the analyst put forward his prediction.

When comparing the spike after BTC halving in 2016 with 2020, there is a considerable reduction in the spike. Hence, the question arises as to whether the 2024 halving spike will yield as much as the 2020 or less.

When considering the above chart, it can be seen that the previous BTC halving produced a spike above the 1:1 Gann line and it reached almost the 1:2 Gann line. Furthermore, scrutinizing the 2023 behavior, BTC has been testing the 4:1 Gann line in the recent past but has been rejected. Since Rekt predicts the near future for BTC to be a period of consolidation, there is a possibility that BTC could keep testing the 4:1 Gann.

On the daily chart, it can noted that BTC has been making higher lows since September 2023. If BTC is able to keep this trend ongoing for the next few weeks, then, it may be able to reach above $31,550.

However, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) indicator which indicates the supply and demand shows a value of 10.69M. The ADL seems to be heading downwards. This motion downwards shows that BTC’s current uptrend is not supported by volume. As such, there is a chance that it could fall. If BTC falls it could seek support at $25,000.