Wintermute, one of the largest market makers in the cryptocurrency market, analyzed the sharp decline in Bitcoin in its latest report, arguing that this was “a purely macro-driven repricing, not a fundamental one.”
The report noted that last week’s sell-off was triggered by the rapid rollback of expectations for a December US interest rate cut, with crypto being hit the hardest as it is the most risk-sensitive asset.
Wintermute noted that last week’s main focus was the repricing of the December Fed rate cut. He added that after Fed Chair Jerome Powell backed down on the notion of a “definite December cut,” investors began to analyze the views of individual FOMC members.
US risk assets weakened as the probability of a December cut fell from 70% to 42% in a week, with crypto being the most affected by this pressure.
The report notes that selling was particularly concentrated during US trading hours, making it clear that the pressure was macro-driven.
According to Wintermute, digital assets were at the bottom of the performance chart among overall asset classes. Unusually, BTC and ETH lost more value than the altcoin basket. There are two reasons for this:
- Altcoins have been under downward pressure for a long time
- There was local strengthening in narrow segments such as privacy coins and fee switch projects.
Bitcoin’s return to the $100,000 level was a move not seen since May. The price defended the $100,000 level twice, on November 4th and 7th, and although it recovered to $110,000 last week, selling began as soon as US markets opened, ultimately leading to a breakout of $100,000.
The institution stated that this is not a structural problem, but rather a seasonal and expectation-based risk reduction.
Wintermute argued that the price action should not cause panic because global macro conditions are still supportive:
- Japan prepares $110 billion stimulus package
- China continues monetary easing
- The QT program in the US ends next month
- Fiscal measures like the new $2,000 stimulus package are still on the agenda
Therefore, it was stated that the sales were due to timing, not direction, and liquidity conditions in the market would improve towards the first quarter of 2026.
*This is not investment advice.