Crypto markets are no stranger to bold price predictions, but when Arthur Hayes speaks, investors listen. The former BitMEX CEO, known for his sharp macro analyses, dropped his analysis in April 2025 essay “Ski Cut.”
According to Hayes, Bitcoin price could soar past $110,000, potentially hitting $200,000, driven by U.S. fiscal and monetary policies flooding markets with liquidity.
Unlike 2022, when Bitcoin languished below $16,000 with fears of sub-$10,000 prices, or recent concerns of a drop below $60,000 from $74,500, Hayes sees a bullish horizon.
His firm, Maelstrom, backed this view by boosting Bitcoin holdings during a dip from $110,000 to $74,500, signaling strong conviction.
Liquidity: The Hidden Catalyst for Bitcoin Price Breakout
Hayes’ thesis hinges on U.S. policies injecting liquidity. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has shifted toward issuing short-term bills over long-term bonds, a move designed to draw funds from the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility—where institutions park cash—back into markets.
This strategy, detailed in Hayes’ essay, effectively increases available liquidity without formal quantitative easing. Meanwhile, the Fed scaled back its quantitative tightening in March 2025, reducing the pace of balance sheet contraction.
Quantitative tightening shrinks the money supply by letting assets mature without reinvestment; slowing it keeps more cash in circulation.
Hayes also highlights potential Fed moves, like exempting bank Treasury holdings from the supplementary leverage ratio, allowing banks to hold more bonds without capital constraints.
Another possibility is a “QT Twist,” where proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities are reinvested into Treasuries, maintaining the Fed’s balance sheet size.
These measures, Hayes argues, mimic easing policies, creating a favorable environment for assets like Bitcoin. He notes that markets have already rallied as investors adjust to these shifts, per his “Ski Cut” analysis.
Hayes sees Bitcoin breaking free from tech stock correlations, aligning instead with gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical turmoil.
With the U.S.-China trade tensions escalating and budget pressures mounting, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it an attractive safe haven.
Maelstrom’s increased Bitcoin purchases during the $110,000-to-$74,500 drop underscore this belief. Unlike equities tied to corporate earnings, Bitcoin thrives in uncertainty, much like gold during market stress.
Hayes’ positioning of Bitcoin as “digital gold” taps into growing investor interest in alternative assets amid traditional market volatility.
Altcoins: Waiting in the Wings
Altcoin enthusiasts may need to hold off, according to Hayes. He expects Bitcoin’s dominance—its share of the $3 trillion crypto market cap—to rise first, as seen when it held steady at $74,500 despite earlier fears of a $60,000 crash.
Historical patterns support this: in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin’s rallies preceded altcoin rallies, often dubbed “altseason.”
Hayes predicts that once Bitcoin breaks $110,000, capital will rotate into smaller tokens, sparking gains across altcoins.
This delay, he argues, reflects Bitcoin’s role as the market’s primary liquidity beneficiary, especially amid dollar expansion from U.S. policies.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s $110,000 level is a key threshold to watch, potentially signaling the start of an altcoin rally. His firm’s actions—buying at $74,500—suggest confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term recovery and long-term growth to $200,000.
However, the crypto market’s volatility demands caution. While Hayes ties his predictions to liquidity trends, factors like regulatory shifts or global events could alter outcomes.
Bitcoin price rose to $94,270, smashing the $88,000 resistance on the daily chart. Ending weeks of flat trading, the rally is backed by high volume, macro tailwinds, and strong technicals.
Holding $92,500 could drive BTC to $96,000 today, with $100,000 in sight. Pullbacks may offer buying chances below $100,000.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/04/25/altcoins-to-wait-as-bitcoin-price-eyes-110000-breakout-arthur-hayes/