according to MARA, the USA are at risk on Bitcoin

According to the crypto mining company MARA, the USA should do more to maintain their leadership in Bitcoin mining. 

With a long article published yesterday on their official X profile, they explain why they believe that the USA is at risk of losing this leadership.

The leadership of the USA according to MARA mining

According to the “mining map” by Chain Bulletin, the USA currently hold about 38% of the entire global hashrate of Bitcoin. 

In second place, after the ban of 2021 which in theory is still ongoing, there would be China, with 21%. In third place, Kazakhstan with 13%. 

No other state holds more than 10%, with Canada fourth at 6%, and Russia fifth below 5%.

It would seem like a strong and consolidated leadership, but according to MARA it is not so. 

The risks for the USA

In her long article yesterday, MARA explains that the USA is facing an urgent need to protect its economic interests and national security. 

To tell the truth, this statement seems a bit too in line with the electoral propaganda of Trump, just as a second statement that the world is witnessing a significant trend towards de-dollarization seems a bit too in line with pro-Chinese and pro-Russian propaganda. 

Therefore, it is advisable to take with a grain of salt what the company declares, which moreover is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange where it is not showing particularly significant performances in this 2024. 

The only real risk that clearly emerges from MARA’s reasoning is the one related to the purchase of BTC to hold as a strategic reserve. 

They write that speculations are increasing about countries building reserves in Bitcoin, and this corresponds to what has been emerging for a few weeks now from the news coming from around the world. 

They add: 

“Before the imminent Trump administration, the United States must move quickly to secure dominant positions in bitcoin and Bitcoin mining”.

The dominant position of the USA

Currently, the USA already has a dominant position globally both for the possession of BTC among the states and in Bitcoin mining. 

The issue raised by MARA is that it is not certain that such a position will remain dominant, although to be honest with the Trump administration it could consolidate or even strengthen. 

However, while the USA holds more than 200,000 BTC, which with Trump should be kept as a strategic reserve, China holds about 190,000, which, however, does not seem that they will be kept as a reserve. 

Furthermore, after the 2021 ban, China moved from first to second place for global hashrate in Bitcoin mining. 

While on one hand it seems unlikely today that the large Asian country might decide to hold its BTC as a reserve, it seems much less unlikely that it might decide to lift the ban, which doesn’t work anyway, and try to become a leader in Bitcoin mining again. 

The requests of MARA on the crypto mining sector in the USA

In this regard, MARA explicitly asks not only for a strategic reserve in Bitcoin to be created in the USA, but above all for the country to invest in national Bitcoin mining. 

However, this is clearly a request that is not disinterested, and if contextualized within the current situation, it appears even less so. 

In April, there was the fourth halving of Bitcoin, which effectively halved the BTC earnings of miners, including MARA. 

In fact, while the price of Bitcoin in November recorded a new all-time high 35% higher than that of March, the price of MARA shares on the stock exchange in November recorded a peak lower than that of February. Furthermore, it is still at -70% from the highs of late 2021. 

Indeed, the current price of about $25 is in line with that of April 2022 and January 2021, which shows that investors are much less interested in MARA shares than in Bitcoin, despite the fact that the company mainly does nothing but mine BTC. 

Furthermore, at the end of the article, they explicitly invite readers to contact their Government Affairs and Corporate Social Responsibility team via email, almost as if inviting the US government to contact them. 

The reserves in Bitcoin

That said, the reasoning about the strategic reserves of the States in BTC seems to make sense. 

The fact is that BTC are limited, because currently there are almost 19.8 million, but there can never be more than 21 million. 

This means that if the States start to hoard them, the ones available on the public markets will necessarily decrease.

A Bitcoin is divisible up to one hundred million parts (one hundred millionth of a BTC is called a Satoshi), but any reduction in supply on the markets could easily lead to an increase in price, and therefore the costs for those who want to purchase them. 

In light of this, MARA is right to warn that in the future there might be fewer good moments to buy BTC at a good price, and therefore it is advisable for States to start considering as soon as possible whether it is worthwhile to create a strategic reserve in Bitcoin, perhaps alongside those in gold.