Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3.38% in the past 12 hours, attempting to recover from Friday’s brutal correction. Technical and on-chain data show why BTC price revisiting of the all-time high of $111,959.5 or a push higher toward $120,000 is unlikely.
Why BTC Price Climbing to $120,000 is Unlikely?
In the long run, Bitcoin (BTC) setting up an ATH beyond $120,000 is highly likely as the higher timeframe outlook is largely bullish. On a lower timeframe, the BTC price remains bearish due to three critical signals:
- Technicals suggest a potential reversal or a short-term correction is due.
- Whales holding between 100K to 1M BTC are reducing their stack.
- Blockchain data shows clear profit-taking activity.
These key developments suggest that a short-term pause or a pullback is highly likely here for BTC price.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Chart Flashes Bearish Swing Failure Pattern
The weekly candlestick close shows Bitcoin (BTC) price breached the previous ATH of $110K, but failed to close above it. This technical formation is termed a swing failure pattern, where the asset fails to show strength above closing above a key level.
Additionally, the RSI shows a lower high compared to Bitcoin’s higher high, displaying a classic bearish divergence pattern. The non-conformity between price and the momentum indicator shows the lack of bullish momentum, which often leads to a correction in the underlying asset.
In that regard, the 43% rally from $76,555 to $110,000 is a key higher timeframe price swing that investors should note. If the price is overextended as the indicators suggest, then a correction is due. When most rallies or uptrends face exhaustion, a correction to the fair value or discount mode is noted. In this case, the midpoint of the aforementioned 43% rally at $93,024 is the fair value. A push below this level would be considered discount mode and is often where smart money or whales accumulate.
A previous CoinGape article noted four reasons why Bitcoin price may crash to $100K, which is inline with the above outlook. The said article notes an implied volatility-based sell signal as one of the reasons for a retracement.
Whales Offload BTC Holdings
Santiment’s blockchain data shows whales holding between 100K to 1M BTC are selling. These smart investors’ holdings spiked from 647.73K to 679.63K between February and April 2025. They accumulated when Bitcoin price consolidated between $75K and $88K. Now, these investors are offloading, adding headwinds to price, which is already under a key resistance level.
Profit-taking Accelerates as BTC Consolidates Below Previous ATH
Typically, when Bitcoin price approaches its previous ATH or sets up a new one in close vicinity, there’s a lot of profit-taking activity. Investors who bought at the previous top or before the rally are attempting to cash in some gains. As a result, BTC price continues to consolidate around previous highs.
The Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) Indicator spiked from 2.3B to 9.18B as BTC price rose from $82K to $111K. History shows that large upticks in NPL often coincide with local tops as investors sell to realize gains.
To conclude, the weekly chart shows weakness, which is clearly echoed by whales’ behavior and the NPL indicator spike. As more investors book profits, the chances of a potential correction to key support levels are highly likely. Unless new capital flows in, the chances of a BTC price rally to $120,000 or higher are not possible.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Technical and on-chain data suggest a potential reversal or correction is due, with whales reducing their holdings and blockchain data showing clear profit-taking activity.
The weekly chart shows a bearish swing failure pattern, where Bitcoin failed to close above its previous ATH, and a classic bearish divergence pattern is observed in the RSI.
The midpoint of the 43% rally from $76,555 to $110,000 at $93,024 is considered the fair value, and a push below this level would be considered discount mode, potentially where smart money or whales accumulate.
Akash Girimath
Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst & Market Strategist
Engineer-turned-analyst Akash Girimath delivers data-driven insights on cryptocurrency markets, DeFi, and blockchain technology for platforms like AMBCrypto and FXStreet. Specializing in technical analysis, on-chain analytics, and risk management, he empowers institutional investors and retail traders to navigate market volatility and regulatory shifts.
A hands-on strategist, Akash merges active crypto portfolio management with research on Web3, NFTs, and tokenomics. At AMBCrypto, he led cross-functional teams to redesign content frameworks, achieving record-breaking traffic growth through scalable editorial strategies. His analyses dissect market sentiment, investment strategies, and price predictions, blending macroeconomic trends with real-world trading expertise.
Known for mentoring analysts and optimizing workflows for high-impact reporting, Akash’s work is cited across global crypto publications, reaching 500k+ monthly readers. Follow his insights on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn for cutting-edge perspectives on decentralized ecosystems and crypto innovation.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Source: https://coingape.com/markets/3-reasons-btc-price-is-not-rallying-to-120000-or-higher/
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