$2B Bitcoin & $280 mln Ethereum options expire today – Wild swings expected?

• Bitcoin’s expiry shows bullish bias as Open Interest climbs and smart money sentiment turns positive.
• Ethereum faces heavier sell pressure, with whale inflows and sentiment skewing sharply bearish.

A volatile trading session looms as $2.02 billion in Bitcoin [BTC] options and $280 million in Ethereum [ETH] options are set to expire today.

These high-stakes expiries have historically acted as catalysts for sudden price swings, especially when Open Interest and sentiment indicators show significant divergence.

With traders aggressively repositioning to protect capital or maximize gains, both BTC and ETH face heightened intraday risk.

As expiry pressure intensifies, the market’s reaction may set the tone for the weekend and possibly the broader short-term trend.

BTC options and potential scenarios

Bitcoin traded at $84,493.50, down 0.34% at press time. Meanwhile, Max Pain hovered near $90,000, per Coinglass, suggesting an upward pull as market makers aimed to minimize payouts.

Furthermore, Open Interest climbed to $54.73 billion, marking a 1.81% increase, which suggests stronger participation leading into the expiry.

Source: CoinGlass

Although sentiment remained divided, smart money appeared confident. MarketProphet data showed crowd sentiment at -0.20, revealing slight pessimism from retail traders.

However, smart money sentiment was firmly positive at 0.92, implying that institutional players expected an upward move. 

Additionally, liquidation data reflected an imbalance—$1 million in long positions have been flushed, compared to just $278.86K in shorts, hinting at over-leveraged longs exposed to further downside if momentum stalls.

Source: Coinglass

Ethereum’s position: Lower value, similar volatility?

Ethereum traded at $1,581.17, slipping 1.54% at press time. That placed ETH just under its Max Pain mark of $1,600, hinting at price magnetism toward that level.

However, Ethereum’s sentiment remained noticeably weaker than Bitcoin. MarketProphet gauged place crowd sentiment at -0.15 and smart money sentiment at -1.67, both reinforcing a dominant bearish outlook. 

Therefore, any bullish reversal may face resistance unless fundamentals shift quickly.

Additionally, on-chain positioning appeared heavy—traders and whales may avoid making strong moves until expiry dust settles.

Source: CoinGlass

Market sentiment and whale activity: What’s priced in?

Whale behavior and on-chain flows offer more context for today’s volatility. Over the past week, 15,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges.

This accumulation trend aligns with smart money’s bullish stance and implies that major holders expect strength following the expiry.

Therefore, BTC may find post-expiry stability or even upside traction if broader sentiment remains constructive. Ethereum, on the other hand, signals a completely different narrative.

In just six days, Galaxy Digital deposited 62,181 ETH worth $99.46 million to exchanges, including a $20.09 million inflow to Binance just eight hours ago. 

Such inflows often precede sell pressure or hedging behavior, especially when paired with bearish sentiment.

This activity amplifies downside risk and creates a challenging environment for ETH unless strong demand re-emerges quickly.

Therefore, while Bitcoin flashes early signs of resilience, Ethereum may be entering a more volatile phase—one heavily shaped by its expiry dynamics and whale flows.