Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes the traditional four-year crypto cycle is no longer relevant.
Once considered a driving force behind Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust patterns, Hougan says the influence of events like the halving has significantly diminished.
According to him, the halving’s impact cuts in half every cycle, making it less powerful over time. In contrast, broader structural changes — including institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and the rise of crypto ETFs — are shaping a new market dynamic.
He highlights that:
ETF inflows mark the beginning of a multi-year trend, starting in 2024;
Institutional interest is accelerating, with pensions and large funds only now entering the space;
Meaningful regulatory progress began in early 2025;
Wall Street has begun allocating serious capital, especially after the recent passage of the GENIUS Act.
Hougan believes these deeper, longer-lasting trends will override the old cycle, saying, “2026 will be a good year,” driven more by mainstream adoption than by historical crypto rhythms.
Alexander Zdravkov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He is fluent in German and has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.
Source: https://coindoo.com/matt-hougan-2026-will-be-a-breakout-year-for-bitcoin/