$150K or $105K? How Bitcoin’s supply squeeze holds the key

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin retraced to the $110K–$112K zone as MACD signals weakening momentum. Meanwhile, Spot Taker CVD shows sellers remain dominant, while Stock-to-Flow highlights long-term scarcity.

The debate on Bitcoin’s [BTC] next big move has intensified as supply dynamics tighten further, creating both excitement and concern among investors. 

Bitcoin recently retraced from highs above $120K, reflecting growing market uncertainty despite a clear upward bias in long-term charts.

Liquid supply remains historically high, suggesting holders are reluctant to sell, while liquid reserves stay compressed. This dynamic reinforces scarcity, which typically strengthens upward pressure. 

Yet, with volatility spiking, the central question is whether Bitcoin can transform this supply squeeze into a sustainable push toward $150K.

Can Bitcoin hold critical zones as MACD points to weakening momentum?

Bitcoin’s price action has retreated toward the $110K–$112K support area, hovering just above the 0.786 Fib retracement zone. 

This decline comes alongside a bearish MACD cross, which reflects fading momentum after weeks of steady rallies. 

The failure to reclaim $118.5K resistance adds to short-term concerns, as bulls struggle to regain full control. 

However, strong demand remains intact above $107K, where buyers previously defended aggressively. 

Therefore, the battle between weakening momentum and resilient demand highlights a decisive test. Sustaining above $111K could prevent a deeper slide toward $105K.

Source: TradingView

Will persistent selling pressure keep dominating flows?

Spot Taker CVD data reveals sellers have remained dominant across the last 90 days, tilting market flows heavily to the downside. 

This imbalance underlines how large takers continue to exert pressure despite Bitcoin’s broader uptrend. Consequently, attempts to break above key resistance levels have met heavy rejection. 

However, as liquidity remains limited, any sudden reduction in selling could trigger outsized rallies due to scarcity-driven rebounds. 

Thus, while short-term flows favor sellers, the potential for sharp counter-moves persists if whales reduce activity.

Source: CryptoQuant

Does weakening NVT ratio point to declining network strength?

The NVT ratio slipped by more than 4% to around 31, at press time, highlighting that transaction activity is not keeping pace with Bitcoin’s market value. 

This decline signalled reduced capital rotation across the network, which often reflects weaker organic demand. 

As a result, investors could grow cautious about overvaluation risks if on-chain activity fails to recover. 

However, the ratio hovered within a historically neutral band, leaving room for renewed network strength if usage rebounds.

Therefore, NVT trends reinforced the need for activity-driven confirmation of price levels.

Source: CryptoQuant

Is scarcity still the ultimate weapon in Bitcoin’s arsenal?

The Stock-to-Flow ratio has surged 100% higher, reaching 3.18 million, as of writing, underscoring Bitcoin’s enduring scarcity as new supply issuance tightens. 

This metric often drives long-term valuations upward, aligning with projections that place Bitcoin far beyond current levels. 

Scarcity provides the backbone for bullish narratives, even during corrections. Therefore, while short-term indicators suggest fragility, the long horizon still leans positive. 

Historical cycles have repeatedly shown that scarcity fuels recovery phases, meaning Bitcoin’s structural outlook remains strong despite periodic volatility.

Source: CryptoQuant

Can Bitcoin really stretch to $150K or will supply fragility trigger a correction?

Bitcoin’s path forward remains split between scarcity-driven optimism and short-term fragility. If illiquid supply holds and whales maintain discipline, the market could climb toward $150K. 

However, sustained taker selling and weakening momentum may stall recovery, forcing price into deeper tests near $105K. 

Ultimately, scarcity remains Bitcoin’s most powerful weapon, but the market’s ability to absorb volatility will determine if $150K becomes reality or fades into another correction phase.