How Teams Should Proceed Before NBA Draft

With the NBA draft under a week away, trade rumors have – rather naturally – popped up and given basketball fans something to talk about.

It seems that, outside of the first overall pick, selections ranging from #2 to #5 are all under trade speculation.

So let’s break down those four draft slots and see if a potential trade even makes sense.

2nd overall, Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have been bad for quite a while now, and are looking Scoot Henderson right in the eye with their current placement. The team is, allegedly, also considering selecting Brandon Miller out of Alabama, and recent reports from The Athletic’s Shams Charania indicate the New Orleans Pelicans are keen on acquiring that selection.

At this stage, where the team is still building around LaMelo Ball, the Hornets should be in no rush to accelerate a competitive window. Even if – hypothetically – the Pelicans put Zion Williamson in the deal (which they probably should), the Hornets would take an enormous risk by moving off Henderson and taking on a star who’s played just 29 games over the past two years.

Furthermore, it’s fair to question if the Hornets would even want to relinquish the cost-controlled asset of Henderson on a four-year rookie contract, for a win-now player. Especially when Henderson, in his own right, should be an incredibly safe selection, who still offers high reward.

Judgment: Stay put at #2 by any means necessary.

3rd overall, Portland Trail Blazers

Very few teams should envy Portland right now, who are finding themselves in an incredibly difficult position.

Firstly, they have an aging superstar in Damian Lillard, whose time is right now. Not tomorrow, not a few years out, but right now. That means, to put it mildly, the Blazers need to rush to get Lillard the right weapons, so the team can properly compete for a title.

With young assets such as Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons, not to mention the pick itself, the Blazers have ample opportunity to cash in on a big deal.

Now, the larger question is whether they should go this route. After all, can the team acquire enough veteran help with the above package to put them on a path towards the championship? Unless the player is coming back is Joel Embiid, or players of that level, it would seem optimistic to expect major changes to their win total next season.

Sure, O.G. Anunoby would make them better immediately, but does he raise the team to contention level? Probably not.

However, the team has repeatedly committed to Lillard, and they must now follow through. It’s their own doing, and a choice many disagree with, but they essentially just wasted two seasons trying to give him the right supporting cast, and his own trade value is no longer where it used to be.

Judgment: Sell the farm for upgrades, and hope for the best.

4th overall, Houston Rockets

Inexplicably, the Rockets remain connected to James Harden in free agency this coming July. Harden, who will turn 34 this year, would make for a wonderful upgrade at the point guard position, as long as he’s willing to act the role of mentor, and not return to his old Houston ways of occupying the entire offense.

While Rockets ownership seems intent on wanting to accelerate their rebuilding process, it’s crucial to understand they’ve actually done rather well in building this team back from, seen from a youth movement perspective.

Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün both have star upsides, and the team has found plenty of solid wings, such as Tari Eason and Kenyon Martin Jr, who can turn into more than just rotation players as they develop further.

Yes, Jabari Smith struggled most of his rookie season, but a 6’10 forward who can shoot, rebound, and has defensive growth potential is rare. More than likely, Smith will come around, and fairly soon. You don’t mess with that.

Judgment: Don’t even think about moving the pick.

5th overall, Detroit Pistons

It was obvious to everyone that the Pistons took one to the chin at the lottery, where they slipped four spots. That’s never easy to reconcile with, especially when Victor Wembanyama was the prize.

However, it seems like an emotional reaction if Detroit is to seriously entertain the idea of moving off the fifth pick in a positively loaded draft, where quality talent is broadly available. And frankly, the whole “taking my ball and going home” ideology should be set aside, simply due to the enormous possibilities at this draft slot.

And yet, the Pistons should still consider a trade. Not to trade out of the draft, but to trade down. They’re in a very interesting situation where they have their frontcourt and backcourt somewhat set, but are in dire need of wing depth. Usually, in the draft, you go by best player available, but if you trade down, you can allow yourself to align value, while taking positions into consideration.

Caveat: Should Cam Whitmore not be chosen by the Rockets one pick earlier, logic dictates the Pistons should just stay put, and grab him with their own selection.

In the event Whitmore is off the board, Anthony Black would make for a tremendous backup plan, and the Pistons could likely trade down a few slots, and still expect Black to be on the board. That would not only provide them with a wing, but they’d pick up additional assets in the process, which is worth gold to where they are in their developmental timeline.

Judgment: Stay at #5 if Whitmore is on the board, trade down for Black if he isn’t.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.