Yankees’ Anthony Volpe Needs More Minor League Seasoning After All

Major league baseball is hard. Really, really hard. After Yankees’ rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe won the starting job at his position with a strong spring training despite having only 99 Triple-A plate appearances under his belt, I wrote about his worthiness here. While I felt he was ready, I acknowledged the substantial risk the Yankees were assuming. He had scuffled in Double-A ball at the outset of 2022, and hadn’t exactly set Triple-A on fire. And while he has done some things well this season – 9 homers, 14 steals and solid SS defense are nothing to sneeze at – the numbers don’t lie. Volpe is hitting .186-.260-.345 to date – it’s time for a reset.

In his last 20 games through Monday, he was batting .109-.134-.219 with a 23/2 K/BB in 67 plate appearances. (He did hit a pair of doubles last night.) That’s rougher than rough. I’m not just going to take that cold streak and his seasonal numbers at face value, however – let’s dig down into the batted ball data and inspect the foundation of his offensive game to date and look for signs of hope.

An uneducated inspector of batted ball data might conclude that Volpe is…….well, pretty average. His overall average exit speed (88.6 mph) is smack at the 2022 AL regulars’ league average. His 93.0 mph average liner and 84.4 mph average grounder exit speeds are at the bottom of the league average range, and his 92.4 mph average fly ball exit speed is actually over a half standard deviation above league average.

His batted ball frequency rates are also all in the league average range (3.4% pop up, 35.1% fly ball, 18.9% line drive and 42.6% grounder rates), as is his 8.8% walk rate.

The obvious exception is his 30.8% strikeout rate, which is over a full standard deviation higher than league average. That’s a big deal – if you’re going to be striking out that much, you need to be doing some damage.

There are some nuances to all of those league average range numbers that are causing Volpe’s offensive game to be so far below league average. While his average exit speeds aren’t bad, he’s hitting an awful of lot of batted balls in the dead zone where little damage is done. He’s hit 28 fly balls between 90-100 mph, and has been fortunate to hit .178 AVG-.571 SLG on them. He’s hit exactly one liner and one grounder above 105 mph – 18.4% of MLB liners and 7.2% of grounders have cleared those thresholds. Volpe’s Adjusted Contact Scores are below average across all major batted ball types (93 Fly Ball, 90 Line Drive, 84 Ground Ball).

But there’s another major problem. Volpe is an extreme ground ball puller, like the other shortstop in town, Francisco Lindor, who we covered last week. In fact, he’s been even more extreme in that department than Lindor, pulling 39 grounders and hitting only two the other away. The resulting penalty drops his Adjusted Grounder Contact Score to 35, or his actual .130 AVG-.130 SLG grounder performance.

Many invoke the name of Derek Jeter when discussing Volpe, and there are some similarities. But A) Jeter never struck out much, B) Jeter always hit a ton of liners, and C) Jeter sprayed the ball all over the field. Jeter’s floor was exceedingly high, much higher than Volpe’s. That said, even The Captain scuffled in his first crack at the bigs, going 11 for 47 in a 13-game stint at about this stage of the 1995 season at age 21.

So what do we have in Volpe as a hitter? Well, his launch angle distribution isn’t as problematic as Lindor’s, but he lacks a true strength. He hits the ball hard enough for someone his age, whose physical ship hasn’t come in yet, but the volume of outs given away via the strikeout and rolled-over pulled grounders means that he “should be” hitting almost exactly what he actually is – .183-.256-.338, for 67 “Tru” Production+. He’s got a power-before-hit profile, but lacks the physicality presently to be a legitimate power hitter.

I’m not down on Anthony Volpe as a long-term prospect. I believe in the talent and the makeup, but he simply has to make more contact and get back to using the entire field and become more of a hit-before-power player.The Mariners’ Jarred Kelenic, in my opinion, had an even more daunting set of circumstances, and while he’s not home free, now appears to at least have fought his way off of the canvas. My gut is that this would be best done – as Kelenic did – at the minor league level, not by, you know, facing deadly AL East pitching at the major league level.

But that conclusion is purely based on the on-field circumstances. It doesn’t take into consideration that the Yankees passed up big-time middle infield alternatives in multiple postseasons to keep those positions warm for the homegrown Volpe and Oswald Peraza. And then, let Volpe jump Peraza, whose minor league resume was much more complete, based on a single superior spring training. The Yanks would have to swallow hard and admit they were wrong.

Peraza, at 23 a year older than Volpe, has done his part, going back to Triple-A and hitting .311-.383-.597 while playing quality defense. He could at least temporarily slot into the MLB starting SS job and couldn’t possibly be materially worse than his organization-mate.

And don’t be fooled by Volpe’s nine homers and 14 steals – his 0.4 fWAR to date is solely on the back of his baserunning value. His defense has been OK, but he’s never been seen as a franchise defender. If this kid doesn’t hit, he isn’t going to have a ton of major league value – and the current iteration of Anthony Volpe isn’t going to hit without adjustments that are best made at the minor league level.

Even Mike Trout didn’t dominate in his first crack at the major leagues. I’m not saying that Volpe is Trout, but he, like Jeter could be a Trout among shortstops if he is allowed to clear his head, enjoy some success and get back to some of the habits that made him shine in the first place.