Identifying The Right Path Forward For Chris Paul And The Suns

Hours before Game 3 of the NBA Finals, news leaked that the Phoenix Suns and Chris Paul er reviewing their relationship, even going as far as the Suns considering waiving him.

The situation is quite complicated, and in dire need of additional context, so let’s first look at some of the options for the Suns.

Straight waive

Logically, waiving Paul makes sense from a financial standpoint, given that only $15.8 million of his $30.8 million is guaranteed on his contract for next season. The Suns could then re-sign Paul to a significantly smaller amount, and thus keep the future hall of fame point guard around for much cheaper.

This, by far, seems the most plausible and optimal route for the Suns, as they in this scenario retain Paul, but for cheaper, and won’t have to spend months rooting through the trade market.

Note: Paul’s trigger date is June 28th for his contract becoming fully guaranteed, and according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Paul and his camp seek resolution before then.

Waive-and-stretch

The Suns could also decide to waive-and-stretch Paul’s contract into several years, thus lowering the annual cap hit. Paul would still get all of his money, but his salary will stay on the Suns’ books for up to five years, albeit in smaller pieces.

Using this method outright prevents the Suns from re-signing Paul, unlike the straight waive scenario. As such, it’s the least logical pathway for Phoenix. They might open up enough money to free up the Non-Tax MLE (worth an estimated $12.1 million per year), but that’s hardly enough to find a player of Paul’s skill level on the open market.

Trade

The Suns could try to ship out Paul in a trade, but once again the lack of logic with this option is overpowering, given that the Suns just spent the February trade deadline dealing for Kevin Durant, who’ll turn 35 right before the start of next season.

It’s fairly obvious that the Suns are trying to win now. They made the Finals in 2021 and trading for Durant, who is inching closer to his NBA expiration date, underlines that. So why pivot off a win-now point guard who still plays at a high level, and remains one of the most consistent playmakers in the league?

Further complicating matters is the fact that Paul, due to him having turned 38 and being on a contract that pays him over $30 million, simply isn’t an attractive trade asset.

At this stage of his career, Paul is worth more on the court than as a trade component. The Suns would effectively downgrade by sending him out, which defeats the purpose of trying to win.

What to do

The Suns need depth, and they need financial flexibility to aquire that depth. Yet, removing Paul from the equation seems incredibly shortsighted, and it’s fair to ask whether they would even get enough depth in from the money freed up by pivoting away from him.

Paul reportedly wants to be in Phoenix, which seems to make the outlines of the straight waive option the best-case scenario for both parties.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.