How the Ukrainians were able to beat Russia’s Hypersonic weapons.

Defense technology is a perpetual cat-and-mouse game; as soon as a military deploys a new technology, its adversary starts to develop a technology to counter it. Both sides then continue to advance their respective technologies, hoping to maintain an edge on the battlefield. The winner of this game is typically the side that is quicker to develop and adapt their systems. Unfortunately for the Russian military, they made a serious mistake in this game with their hypersonic weapons. They deployed this weapon early in the war, and then waited for eight months before using it again, giving the Ukrainians ample time to study and analyze it. During this time, the Ukrainians acquired the necessary capabilities to effectively counter this once unstoppable weapon.

Considered a game-changing technology, hypersonic missiles fly at speeds in excess of Mach 5 while maintaining a high degree of maneuverability, allowing it to elude modern air-defense systems. Only China and Russia currently have hypersonic weapons. The primary Russian hypersonic weapon is the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile, which is intended for destroying key enemy assets during combat operations. The Kinzhal is a hypersonic cruise missile which is launched from a MiG-31k or Tu-22M3 aircraft travelling at Mach 2.7. The missile then uses rocket propulsion to accelerate to speeds of Mach 10. Weapon experts believe that the Kinzhal is simply a modified version of the Iskander missile, a ground-based weapon system that has been a mainstay of the Russian arsenal for over a decade.

The Russian military first operationally fired a Kinzhal missile on March 18, 2022 to destroy a Ukrainian weapon depot in Deliatyn. They reportedly then fired a second Kinzhal missile the next day to destroy a fuel depot in Konstantinovka. In May, they again used these missiles to strike targets in Odesa. The next reported usage of a Kinzhal missile was in January 2023, when the Russians used this weapon in a large barrage including conventional missiles and kamikaze drones. They repeated this in early March, using six Kinzhal missiles as part of another barrage. The Russians then proceeded to use the Kinzhal missile on May 6, 2023; this missile was famously stopped by a Patriot air-defense system. Three days later, the Russian military reportedly launched a series of six Kinzhal missiles at Ukrainian sites; the Ukrainians claimed to have shot down five of the six missiles.

While much has been written about the utilization of Kinzhal missiles and the subsequent Ukrainian response with Patriots, the timing of their usage holds particular interest. The Russians employed these weapons early in the war, striking crucial Ukrainian targets. Their selection likely stemmed from the need for the range and power offered by the Kinzhal, capitalizing on the advantage of Ukrainian air-defense systems being ill-equipped to counter them. Following an eight-month pause, the weapons resurfaced briefly before experiencing another two-month hiatus before further usage.

These pauses raise a number of questions. During these pauses, the war was raging especially in the Donbas region so there was no shortage of potential targets for the Russian military to engage. Considering the initial success of the weapon, it would have been logical for the Russian military to employ it continuously against key Ukrainian command nodes, depots, and infrastructure. The most probable explanation for these pauses is that the Russian military lacked a sufficient stockpile of these weapons. Rather, it took eight months for the Russians to procure additional missiles. This eight-month time frame is long, given that the missile has already been designed and tested. Further, it shares many similarities with the common Iskander missile, allowing the Russians to use similar parts and tooling, further reducing the manufacturing times.

The substantial amount of time for procuring additional Kinzhal missiles is likely due to two reasons. First, the Russian defense industrial base is having difficulties producing the conventional ammunition and equipment being depleted by the Russian forces in Ukraine. Already strained, they likely prioritized the development of conventional weapons over the development of the Kinzhal. These issues are further accentuated by supply chain shortages related to microchips caused by both the COVID-19 pandemic and international sanctions.

The second reason is that the Russian military has a somewhat cumbersome defense acquisition process, which can result in delays in the procurement of new technologies. Their defense acquisition processes are similar to most other modern militaries and do not necessarily keep pace with the speed of technology. As a consequence, Russia’s military has traditionally struggled to produce large quantities of its more sophisticated systems.

The combination of these issues gave the Ukrainians time to adjust their systems and tactics to account for the Kinzhal. The Ukrainians were able to investigate the missile and its usage to better understand its capabilities and limitations. One such limitation is that the missile is not very accurate, likely indicating that the weapon is not as maneuverable as previously believed. Further, the rocket propulsion system may result in the weapon needing to slow down over its flight path, making it an easier target. It is highly likely that the Patriot systems were adjusted to account for the information garnered from the weapons initial usages.

Regardless, the cat and mouse game will continue. The Russians will likely upgrade the Kinzhal systems, increasing their maneuverability and allowing them to evade the Patriot systems. The Ukrainians will follow suit and the air-defense technology will evolve in the hypersonic realm.