Here’s Why The Debt Ceiling Deal Still Faces Hurdles

Topline

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) will take steps to strip a new natural gas pipeline project from a bipartisan bill to raise the debt ceiling, his office said Monday—one of several scenarios that could derail the newly announced legislation as party leaders scramble to secure votes to pass it before the country defaults on its debt as soon as June 5.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., will file an amendment to remove federal permits for a controversial natural … [+] gas pipeline from the debt ceiling bill, his office said Monday. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

Key Facts

Kaine’s office said Monday he would file an amendment to remove federal permits for the Mountain Valley Pipeline project from the debt ceiling bill, calling the provision “completely unrelated to the debt ceiling matter,” NBC News reported Monday.

Kaine has long opposed the project backed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), which would transport gas to East Coast markets via a 300-mile pipeline through West Virginia and Virginia and has faced repeated delays prompted by legal challenges from environmentalists.

Kaine’s push for an amendment is one of several hurdles that could complicate, delay or even change the math for the bill in the Democratic-controlled Senate—where it needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster threshold—before it heads to President Joe Biden’s desk for final approval.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) also vowed to “use every procedural tool at my disposal,” which could include insisting on a lengthy debate, “to impede a debt-ceiling deal that doesn’t contain substantial spending and budgetary reforms,” he tweeted Thursday.

The Republican-controlled House Rules Committee is expected to vote as soon as Tuesday on the guidelines for debate, including whether the bill will be subject to amendments, but three of the nine Republican members have publicly criticized the bill, meaning their votes against the legislation could stall it in committee if the four Democrats on the panel also oppose.

Left- and right-wing members in their respective parties are also likely to oppose the legislation when it comes to the GOP-controlled House floor for a formal vote, which is expected to happen Wednesday, meaning moderate Democrats and Republicans must join together to pass the bill in a narrowly divided House before it can move to the Senate, then Biden’s desk.

What To Watch For

The legislation needs 218 votes to pass the House. McCarthy believes the bill has the support of at least 140 GOP members, Punchbowl reported. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has set a June 5 deadline for when the U.S. could default on its debt if the legislation is not passed before then.

Contra

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) both expressed confidence that the bill would pass the House. McCarthy told Fox News on Sunday “more than 95 percent of all those in the conference were very excited” about the deal. Jeffries told CBS on Sunday he expects Republicans “will provide a significant number of votes to get it over the finish line,” noting “it’s my understanding that they are committed to producing at least 150 votes, if not more.”

Chief Critics

Republican Reps. Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Chip Roy (Texas), both members of the Rules Committee and conservative House Freedom Caucus, have expressed intent to vote against moving the legislation out of committee. Norman called the deal “insanity” in a tweet Saturday and said he’s “not gonna vote to bankrupt our country.” Roy tweeted Sunday that the bill is a “turd sandwich.”

Key Background

McCarthy and Biden announced Sunday they reached a deal to suspend the debt ceiling through 2025 as part of an agreement that includes a number of GOP-backed spending cuts and policy priorities, though politicos have noted the provisions are much more moderate than Republicans’ initial demands. The White House and Republican negotiators agreed not to increase federal non-defense spending in fiscal year 2024 and increase it by 1% in the following fiscal year. The bill would also raise the age, from 50 to 54, that people who receive food stamps are required to work a minimum number of hours per week and reduce new funding for the Internal Revenue Service by $21.4 billion through fiscal year 2025. The deal was reached after Biden refused for months to negotiate with Republicans on a debt ceiling increase.