Luxury Stocks Tumble $30 Billion As Soft U.S. Sales Bling The Changes

High flying luxury stocks came crashing to earth Tuesday, as spooked investors offloaded their bling baggage amid fears of the impact of a softening U.S. economy on sales.

With growing concerns about how long it will take for China to rebound fully, and at least a six-month delay until high net worth Chinese travellers can visit Europe and the U.S. because of visa and passport delays, about €30 billion was wiped from the European luxury sector.

Bernard Arnault, ranked the world’s richest person on the Forbes list, saw his personal fortune slide $11.2 billion, although the LVMH founder has seen his wealth skyrocket this year amid a surge in European luxury companies stock values.

LVMH shares fell 5% in Paris — the biggest single day fall in over a year — amid the broader luxury decline and carried on drifting down today, off nearly 2% more by midday European time.

Tuesday’s rout came after a prolonged rally in LVMH’s share price, which is still up 18% for the year-to-date.

But the sharp fall in share prices of groups including LVMH, Hermes International (down about 5.5% over the past five days) and Richemont (down about 6.5% over the past five days) suggests investors have a bad case of the jitters.

Shares propped up by the assumption that the Chinese consumer would start travelling and spending, plus a soft landing in the U.S. luxury market, are now being questioned.

Richemont chair Johann Rupert conceded earlier this month that the U.S. market has been slowing since November and Burberry Group, amid a relatively positive update last week, reported a 7% decline in U.S. sales for its most recent quarter.

In particular, Burberry CEO Jonathan Akeroyd said that there has been a drop-off in the purchase of entry level accessories among aspirational younger U.S. consumers, who collectively pulled in their bling-less belts.

U.S. Luxury Slowdown Worries

That’s a major concern as, with Chinese regions previously under some of the globe’s toughest and extended lockdowns and ravel restrictions, the U.S., alongside South Korea which is now matching Japan by luxury market size, has been the driver for luxury sales over the past three years.

The major houses have expanded in the U.S., opening stores beyond the traditional luxury hubs of New York and Los Angeles, and LVMH especially could be exposed, as it generated 23% of its sales from the U.S. in its first quarter (although Asia still performed strongly for a number of its key brands).

With the U.S. market cooling, Chinese spending has so far focused on domestic locations, or popular nearby destinations such as Macau and Hong Kong. A backlog in processing visas and passports, plus growing enthusiasm for domestic and regional tourism, means travel analysts don’t believe international Chinese shoppers will be back in force until 2024.

Investors have previously bet on a bounce-back by Chinese consumers. Last month, LVMH’s shares hit a record after it reported a surge in sales, while Hermes joined Europe’s €200 billion club as quarterly sales jumped.

But for luxury stocks, if there is no Chinese ying to the U.S. yang, then this week’s share price falls may not stop here after a prolonged rally that seemed impervious to the cost of living squeeze, the pandemic, inflation or political instability.