The New York Knicks Should Think About Trading Obi Toppin

New York Knicks forward Obi Toppin is eligible for a contract extension before the start of next season, after having completed his third season in the NBA.

Toppin had a productive year of 7.4 points and 2.8 rebounds in 15.7 minutes, but wasn’t able to further build on the year he had in 2021-2022, where he played more minutes (17.1), and looked like a future starter.

So, what exactly happened?

Part of it was the fact that Julius Randle was available for 77 games, and able to play almost 36 minutes per game. After the arrival of Jalen Brunson in free agency, head coach Tom Thibodeau decided to hand the keys to the team’s three premier players of Randle, Brunson, and RJ Barrett. The trio all played north of 33 minutes per night, and occupied major chunks of the offense when on the floor.

Another reason for Toppin’s somewhat pedestrian season was the evolution of Mitchell Robinson, the athletic rim-running center, who occupied much of the interior. With all of Brunson, Randle, and Barrett looking to create with the ball in their hands, and Robinson playing the dunker spot, it left Toppin to pick up the scraps in the offense, which meant functioning as a spot-up shooter – a role he could handle to some capacity, but one he isn’t best served as.

On the year, Toppin launched 247 three-pointers in just 1,050 minutes. The three-point shot made up 58.9% of his offense, a stark increase from the 35.7% it made up last season.

To further hammer the point home, Toppin, an explosive athlete who is an effective pick-and-roll target, had 102 dunks last year, but just 52 this season. 50.5% of his shot attempts came from within three feet of the basket, compared to just 28.9% this year.

Essentially, the Knicks put Toppin in an unusual role where his primary strengths were never on full display, and he had to constantly adjust to the players around him to see court time.

So what should we make of the fact that Toppin is extension eligible?

The 25-year-old is one of the older players to look for a rookie extension, as a new contract will trigger on July 1st 2024, after he’s turned 26. That means any contact extension is likely to carry him through his physical prime and into his Age 30 season.

Determining value on such a contract is additionally tricky. Presumably, Randle isn’t going anywhere, meaning minutes won’t be easy to come by. Furthermore, Randle will earn over $30 million in 2024-2025, the year a Toppin extension would kick in. Would the Knicks even be interested in committing over $40 million per year to the power forward position?

More than likely, Toppin will enter the summer 2024 as a restricted free agent, allowing him to find other suitors. If he’s offered a substantial wage, odds are decent the Knicks would consider not matching due to aforementioned dedication to Randle.

All in all, the above scenario makes trading Toppin this summer a realistic possibility.

While teams aren’t keen on trading for players who are just a year from free agency, Toppin’s offensive ability – when used accurately – would be a boon to many teams where elite playmaking is already established. The Indiana Pacers could do much worse than trading for Toppin and pair him with Tyrese Haliburton. The same can be said of the Dallas Mavericks with Luka Dončić.

Even if the Knicks aren’t keen on moving Toppin due to that upside, they’ve reached a point where they will need to read the tea leaves, and make a call that’s best for them in the long-term. Forcing themselves to overpay for Toppin in a backup role, or to lose him for nothing, should be non-starters.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.