A-10 Warplane Deployment Unlikely To Reassure U.S. Allies In The Persian Gulf

The U.S. is sending planes the air force explicitly doesn’t want in an attempt to reassure skeptical allies in the Middle East, especially the Arab Gulf states, that it remains committed to their security.

A squadron of A-10 Thunderbolt II attack planes, known as Warthogs, are heading to the Middle East. The planes are replacing more advanced aircraft the air force previously deployed to the region that are now needed in Europe and the Pacific to deter Russia and China, respectively.

Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, Commander of the Ninth Air Force (Air Forces Central), extolled this new deployment. “They’re really here as a message to both assure our partners…but also as…a true capability that can work against some of the threats that we face with respect to Iran,” he said.

The Warthogs are coming with substantial upgrades that will enable them to carry 16 Small Diameter Bombs, hugely improving and increasing the aircraft’s ground attack capabilities.

But the deployment will hardly convince the Arab Gulf states that the United States remains committed to their security, especially regarding Iran. While these particular A-10s pack considerable firepower, they will hardly singlehandedly deter Tehran, which has formidable air defenses that are more than enough to counter the bulky, non-stealthy, and slow-flying Warthog.

As Grynkewich praised the A-10’s “true capability” for combating the Iran threat, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall told Congress that the Warthog’s time has passed.

“It’s over 40 years old. It was, in its time, a great aircraft – it served us well,” he said. “I was an advocate for that program for a long time, but it doesn’t scare China.”

“It still has some limited utility, but we have to get on with things which are going to be more capable relative to the threat,” he added.

Just as the A-10 doesn’t “scare China,” it will hardly “scare” Iran or reassure the Arab Gulf states. For decades, the U.S. has dispatched aircraft carriers and heavy bombers to the Middle East to demonstrate its resolve and preparedness to combat Iran militarily. In January, it held its largest-ever exercise with Israel, Juniper Oak. Still, allies are skeptical about America’s commitment, and A-10s won’t change that. Their deployment may even unwittingly make these countries more skeptical.

In recent years, the U.S. has also taken more solid steps to reassure Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that it’s serious about helping them deter the Iran threat.

After a deadly September 2019 drone attack on its critical oil infrastructure widely believed to have been executed by Iran, the United States deployed Patriot missile defense systems to the kingdom. Riyadh was not reassured. Then-President Donald Trump didn’t help matters when he unequivocally declared the U.S. had no commitment to defend the kingdom and that it “was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn’t an attack on us.” Two years later, under Biden, the Saudis said they needed reassurance about American commitment as Washington pulled out those batteries.

In January 2022, the UAE’s capital Abu Dhabi came under an unprecedented drone and missile attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen. U.S. forces in the UAE helped the Emiratis shoot down the incoming projectiles. The U.S. then rapidly deployed fifth-generation F-22 Raptor stealth fighters, one of the air force’s most advanced jets, after the attacks to demonstrate its commitment to the UAE’s security.

However, the U.S. had offended the Emiratis by billing them for providing midair refueling for their fighter jets, which were scrambled for round-the-clock air patrols.

Like the Saudis before, the Emiratis were far from reassured.

Since then, Saudi has begun repairing its relations with Iran, which have been badly strained since early 2016, in a deal brokered by China. The UAE has also taken steps to ease tensions with Tehran through diplomacy. These easing of tensions are at least partially the result of past Iranian attacks and fears in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that the U.S. is not fully committed to their security.

Deployments of F-22s and Patriots, even if for limited periods, are much weightier signals to these countries that America has their back. After all, the air force has a limited number of those stealth fighters since production ended over a decade ago. And they are uniquely suited to counter or evade Iran’s aging fourth-generation jets and high-altitude air defenses, which the A-10, conversely, is wholly unsuited. Patriots are also chronically in short supply, as the Ukraine war and tensions with China have once again highlighted, so even a limited deployment of those should send a strong signal.

Even with these latest upgrades, the A-10 is wholly unsuitable for countering or deterring Iran. And the fact the air force is beginning to retire them this year and aims to have the entire fleet decommissioned by 2029 will further convince the Arab Gulf states that America’s priorities are shifting away from their region.