Saturday Odds, Best Bets, And How National Treasure, Perform And Blazing Sevens Can Take Down Mage

The 2023 Preakness underwent its own race-changing last-minute scratch on Friday — eerily like the preceding Kentucky Derby losing Forte on race day — in the form of 2nd-favored contender First Mission’s left hind foot giving him, and trainer Brad Cox, enough problems to trigger the withdrawal. And, like Forte’s withdrawal, it will change the complexion of the race completely, throwing the challenge of taking down Mage squarely on the shoulders of Baffert-trained National Treasure, Chad Brown-trained Blazing Sevens, Shug McGaughey-trained Perform, and Steve Asmussen-trained Red Route One.

With First Mission out of the running, it does open the race for the middle of the pack. Given their styles and recent works, of the four, in no particular order, National Treasure, Perform, and Blazing Sevens seem to have more of the tool kit necessary to beat Mage than does Red Route One. Following the morning line, National Treasure seems to have the best shot at Mage.

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The now quite short field of runners amplifies the limelight on each of the more favored horse and allows players to dig deeper into the detail on them. We’ll be able to watch the money migrate and build its inevitable choppy sea as it moves to and fro from First Mission to National Treasure and Blazing Sevens and then back around to Mage and Perform. Bottom line: Foul betting weather ahead, make sure your wallet is lashed with you to the mast.

Before we get into some of the more highly torqued betting tactics this Preakness will demand, herewith, an odds and post position refresher.

(Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Morning Line)

1. National Treasure, Bob Baffert, 4-1

2. Chase the Chaos, Ed Moger Jr., 50-1

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3. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, 8-5

4. Coffeewithchris, John Salzman Jr., 20-1

5. Red Route One, Steve Asmussen, 10-1

6. Perform, Shug McGaughey, 15-1

7. Blazing Sevens, Chad Brown, 6-1

8. First Mission, Brad Cox, 5-2 (SCRATCH)

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(Source: Pimlico, 5/15/2023)

The now quite short field of runners amplifies the limelight on each of the more favored horse and allows players to dig deeper into the detail on them. We’ll be able to watch the money migrate and build its inevitable choppy sea as it moves to and fro from First Mission to National Treasure and Blazing Sevens and then back around to Mage and Perform. Bottom line: Foul betting weather ahead, make sure your wallet is lashed with you to the mast.

To help us weather the storm, we call as usual upon the Bluegrass Wise Man, a lifelong Kentucky horseman who has been so generous with his deep barnside knowledge in Triple Crown seasons past.

Do you see anything that Mage and his team have to do differently now that First Mission has been scratched?

Bluegrass Wise Man: Not so much. Still gotta break, still gotta run the race, and still gotta win. To do that, he has to start his run to give himself a little more room than he had in the Derby. In the Derby, that last hundred yards of his was good, not trying to take away from him. But it was a bit of a cliffhanger. He has some tactical skill, so that he has a leg up. It’s why he’s the favorite.

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