There Are More F-16s In The Middle East Than Europe, But Ukraine Probably Won’t Get Any

After months of repeatedly insisting that it urgently needs F-16 fighter jets to strengthen its air defense, there are strong indications Ukraine may finally acquire that fighter aircraft. The U.S. has agreed to support a European-led initiative to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the fighter. Ukraine could, therefore, soon acquire used F-16s currently in service with European air forces. However, Europe is not the region with the most F-16s outside the United States.

President Joe Biden informed world leaders at the G7 summit in Japan of his decision to back the European training plan. His decision marks a major turnaround from his administration’s previous stances that Ukraine was not ready to receive the aircraft or that training would take too long to impact the war’s outcome. Any transfer of F-16s serving in European air forces to a third country requires U.S. authorization, which they will now likely receive for any Ukraine transfer.

Belgium, Denmark, and Norway are also reportedly willing to supply Ukraine with F-16s. These three countries, along with the Netherlands, have an estimated 125 of these fighters between them. But aside from the United States itself, the region with the largest number of F-16s is not Europe. It is the Middle East.

The second, third, and fourth largest F-16 fleets belong to the Middle Eastern countries Israel, Turkey, and Egypt, respectively. Israel alone has an estimated 362 F-16s. By comparison, the Netherlands has an estimated 24 F-16s in service, which Amsterdam will soon retire in favor of fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth jets. Denmark has an estimated 30 and Belgium has approximately 40. Norway had 64 before taking them out of service in late 2022, replacing them with its shiny new F-35s.

Poland has 48 F-16s but probably will only agree to transfer those jets once it receives F-35s and puts them into service in their place. Greece has a fleet three times as big, 83 of which are currently being upgraded to the latest Block 72 standard. Athens will unlikely prove willing to transfer any so long as it perceives there to be a military threat from Turkey in its region.

Then there is the Middle East, where there are many more F-16s but far fewer discernible prospects of any transfer.

Israel was willing to sell Croatia 12 of its used F-16s for $500 million in the late 2010s, but the U.S. objected and the deal was canceled. Washington objected to the transfer since Israel has substantially upgraded those jets since acquiring them three decades earlier. Upgrades included sophisticated electronics and radar systems.

The U.S. probably wouldn’t object to Israel supplying Ukraine with F-16s. However, given this Croatian precedent, it may first condition its approval on Israel downgrading those jets by stripping them of such sensitive components.

Still, with Israel’s unwillingness to date to transfer any air defenses Ukraine has directly requested, it may also prove unwilling to give Kyiv even older F-16s anytime soon. Last year, Israel even turned down a U.S. request to transfer outdated American-built MIM-23 Hawk surface-to-air missiles it has in storage.

Turkey has approximately 270 F-16s, which form the backbone of its air force. Ankara is modernizing its older Block 30 models to keep them in service for another few years. Since October 2021, it has sought 40 new modernized Block 70 F-16s from the U.S. along with 79 modernization kits for keeping its existing fleet operational and up-to-date.

The United States banned Turkey from buying F-35s after it bought an advanced Russian air defense system. Ankara is now counting on its arms industry to develop its indigenous fifth-generation fighter, the TF-X Kaan. As a result, it will likely prove less than willing to give or sell any of its F-16s to Kyiv anytime soon.

Then there is Egypt and its 220-strong fleet. For decades, Cairo was irked that Washington refused to sell it any F-15s. In early 2022, there were signs that could soon change. However, given its continued political and strategic ties with Russia, there is little reason to expect Egypt to hand over some F-16s to Ukraine.

Cairo showed no intention to part ways with its modern fleet of MiG-29M/M2 fighters it bought from Russia in the 2010s. These jets would have been ideal for Ukraine early in the war when Kyiv sought out Soviet and Russian fighter aircraft with which its pilots were familiar.

Some future U.S.-sponsored arrangement could convince Egypt to transfer some of its older F-16s, although that has yet to be seen and is, frankly, unlikely.

Other Middle East countries operate F-16s. Jordan has 40+, albeit older models. The tiny island kingdom of Bahrain in the Persian Gulf even has a modest fleet. When the United Arab Emirates ordered 80 F-16E/F Desert Falcon Block 60 jets in the late 1990s, it became the first country to acquire F-16s more modern than those flown by the U.S. Air Force, a historic first.

Abu Dhabi would not likely transfer these jets to Kyiv, given its close ties with Moscow and a growing inclination to balance its strategic relationship with the United States with its economic and political relations with Russia and China. France recently denied a report that it planned on buying the UAE’s Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter fleet, which is in excellent condition, to transfer to Ukraine.

Furthermore, the Emirati withdrawal from a deal to buy 50 F-35s in 2021 may make Abu Dhabi more reluctant to part with its formidable 4.5-generation Desert Falcons.

Iraq has a 34-strong fleet that Baghdad has become more reliant on since the Ukraine war disrupted the supply chain for spare parts for its Russian-built helicopters and planes.

And east of the Middle East, Pakistan has over 80 F-16s, although Islamabad would unlikely transfer or sell any of these jets to Kyiv for many reasons.

Biden’s decision is undoubtedly welcome in Kyiv. But it doesn’t necessarily mean the U.S. will supply any of its F-16s. And while Ukraine may eventually receive some secondhand F-16s from Europe, the only other region with significant numbers of these fighter aircraft is highly unlikely to give Kyiv any of theirs.