Topline
Turkey’s presidential election remained tight early on Monday and is likely heading toward a runoff, with neither candidate managing to secure an outright majority, in what appears to be the most serious challenge to the incumbent leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two-decade grip on power.
Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters in … [+]
Key Facts
With nearly 99% of the ballots counted, Erdogan is ahead, having received 49.35% of the vote, followed at 45% by his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, according to multiple Turkish news outlets.
A runoff election between the two top candidates on May 28 appears increasingly likely, as neither candidate looks poised to secure an absolute majority of more than 50%.
In the parliamentary elections, which also took place on Sunday, the coalition led by Erdogan’s AK Party looks set for a comfortable majority.
Appearing before his supporters early on Monday, Erdogan said he was confident that he could still win the presidential race outright, but if “our nation has chosen for a second round, that is also welcome,” according to the Associated Press.
Kilicdaroglu—who campaigned on the promise of battling the country’s severe inflation and reversing some of Erdogan’s authoritarian moves—told his supporters “we will absolutely win the second round … and bring democracy.”
Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Board will make the final count public after all votes have been counted.
What To Watch For
The results of the elections are likely to have major global ramifications, with Turkey emerging as a key player as tensions rise between the West and Russia following the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite being a NATO member, Turkey under Erdogan has maintained friendly ties with Russia and has even acquired military hardware from the country. This has triggered unease among its NATO allies and has resulted in Ankara being blocked from accessing modern Western military gear like the F-35 fighter jets. Most recently, Erdogan has thrown a spanner into the accession of Sweden and Finland into NATO, accusing them of harboring groups that Turkey labels as terrorists. Erdogan eventually acquiesced to Finland’s admission into the alliance, but Sweden’s attempt to join still remains blocked.
Key Background
Erdogan has been the leader of Turkey for more than two decades now, first serving as the country’s prime minister from 2003 to 2014 and then taking over as the country’s president in 2014. Erdogan has continued to garner during this tenure, with the role of the Prime Minister being scrapped in 2017, following a failed coup attempt against him a year earlier. Erdogan, who has been accused of being an autocrat by his rivals, has also cracked down on the free press and dissidents. Sunday’s election, however, appears to be more focused on recent issues including Turkey’s ballooning inflation, the sharp devaluation of its currency, and a devastating earthquake earlier this year that killed over 50,000 people. Despite these setbacks, Erdogan appears to have performed better than expected, as opinion polls showed Kilicdaroglu having a slight lead over his rival.
Further Reading
Türkiye sees neck and neck race for presidency (Hurriyet Daily)
Turkey’s Erdogan says he could still win, would accept presidential election runoff (Associated Press)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/05/15/turkish-election-likely-heading-towards-runoff-as-erdogan-slips-below-majority-heres-all-you-need-to-know/