Shining a light on the Moonbeam [GLMR] trend in Q2 and Q3 2023

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

• The market structure was bearish, and the trend remained downward.
• Another drop below $0.3 was a likelihood, according to the Fibonacci extension levels.

The Moonbeam Network saw the launch of the Prime Protocol recently, following Polkadot’s [DOT] partnership with the same. This was an effort to establish the first cross-chain decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, which allows users to manage their assets across multiple chains from a single location.

Prime Protocol, the first cross-chain DeFi protocol that lets users easily manage assets across multiple chains, has joined the Polkadot ecosystem, successfully launching on the @MoonbeamNetwork parachain.

This technology is revolutionary in the crypto space, and will… https://t.co/0JueKviH3e

— Polkadot (@Polkadot) May 10, 2023

Read Moonbeam’s [GLMR] Price Prediction 2023-24

As Polkadot’s Ethereum-compatible smart contract para chain, the purpose of Moonbeam is to allow developers to construct Solidity apps in a Substrate environment.

However, its utility token Glimmer [GLMR] did not see a happy story unfold for the buyers over the past year. Market sentiment was unfavorable for long-term investors, and traders can anticipate further losses.

The downtrend was perpetuated after the bears smashed past a support zone from late 2022

Source: GLMR/USDT on TradingView

The daily chart of GLMR showed that the token was in a consistent downtrend since January 2022. At that time, it had been trading at $9.12, but this level was flipped to resistance on 24 January. In November and December 2022, GLMR bulls defended the $0.317 level.

The losses in April saw GLMR sink below $0.35, and the steady downtrend saw prices fall below the $0.317 level on 8 May. Therefore, despite the 80% rally in January and February, the evidence showed that the former higher timeframe downtrend was not broken.

The price action showed a bullish market structure break on 20 February, when GLMR climbed above the recent lower high at $0.54 from November. A more aggressive reading of the market would have seen the bullish structure break on the daily timeframe on 3 February, when Moonbeam bulls drove prices above $0.482.

One indicator highlighted the bulls have some hope

In the past two months, Moonbeam prices hovered around the $0.36 and $0.42 levels. Yet, in mid-April, the momentum shifted bearish once again. It came at the time when Bitcoin bears forced a reversal near the $30k area. The inability of BTC to climb above $31k saw the bears take over the driving seat.

The altcoin market also saw selling pressure rise over the past month, and GLMR has shed 35% in its fall from $0.42 to $0.29. Surprisingly, the OBV did not slump beneath the support level marked on the charts. It had hovered above this level in March, but the enormous buying volume on 21 and 22 April saw the OBV shoot northwards.

Since then, the OBV has only trended downward gently. It did not correspond with the pace that the prices have fallen. This could be an incongruence for bulls to watch out for, as it was a bullish OBV divergence. It hinted at the chance that recent bearish sentiment forced prices lower but was not accompanied by a large volume of sellers. The inference was that prices could recover upward quickly in the event of short-term bullishness across the crypto market.

Yet, overall, the market structure remained strongly bearish on the daily timeframe. A convincing market structure break in favor of the buyers has not occurred since April 2022. The price charts showed no history of GLMR prices being this low on Binance, which was chosen due to the high trading volume. Hence, we must look for other methods to plot and anticipate potential Moonbeam support levels.

Exploring the findings from the Fibonacci levels

Source: GLMR/USDT on TradingView

In late February, GLMR bulls were able to drive a strong move upward to $0.55. But the gains posted during that move were wiped out within three weeks. On 10 March, Moonbeam token prices hit a local low at $0.3346.

Therefore, this impulse move from $0.572 to $0.335 was used to plot a set of Fibonacci retracement and extension levels (yellow). The retracement levels were of some significance on their own, as the 38.2% retracement level at $0.425 acted as a stern deterrent to GLMR bulls. Moreover, it had confluence with the horizontal resistance level at $0.4225, marking this area as a bearish stronghold.

In May, the $0.334 lows were flipped to resistance. After the retest, GLMR saw a minor reaction from the $0.317 support before a fall to the 23.6% extension level. The bounce from $0.278 to $0.29 measured close to 4.5% which made it significant on the lower timeframes.

Yet the higher timeframe bias remained extremely bearish. Hence, sellers can anticipate further losses for Moonbeam on the price charts in the coming months. According to the Fibonacci extension levels, the next support levels to watch out for are $0.216 and $0.188.

How much are 1,10,100 GLMRs worth today?

Short-term sentiment remained bearish despite bouncing prices

Source: Coinalyze

The 1-hour chart from Coinalyze showed that both the prices and the Open Interest were in decline till 12 May. Since then, it has risen slightly. The OI rose by a margin of $200k over the past two days. GLMR bounced by 4.5% in this time.

Therefore, the speculators did not seem to believe that a rally was in sight and preferred to stay sidelined. Another wave of selling could spark short sellers into action. This would be accompanied by the combination of rising OI and falling prices.