Both Tucker Carlson And Fox News Need To Move Quickly; Here’s Why

Tucker Carlson’s abrupt departure from Fox News and recent announcement that he will be launching a similar show on Twitter is an indication of the challenges Carlson faces since he lost his “bully pulpit.” Carlson joins previous Fox News personalities Glenn Beck, Bill O’Reilly and Megan Kelly who had left the top-rated cable network. All three have pretty much disappeared from the political dialog after leaving. To maintain his relevance and impact on the political landscape and Republican Party Carlson has to act quickly.

Although Carlson remains in the media limelight for the time being, the political news cycle is oftentimes in overdrive. Without a continuing and sizable platform, Carlson runs the risk of quickly losing his political relevance, as it had with Beck, O’Reilly and Kelly. While at Fox News Carlson typically averaged three million viewers during his primetime program among the highest on cable television, it will be difficult to replicate.

Twitter is an interesting landing spot for Carlson but it can be a minefield. Since Elon Musk became CEO of the social media company, it has been draining cash as dozens of blue-chip marketers, concerned about brand safety, have pulled their ads. In late March, Musk, in an email to employees, told them Twitter was now valued at $20 billion. Musk acquired Twitter the previous October for $44 billion.

In the aftermath of Carlson’s derisive comments about females and race, which has damaged his personal brand, it is doubtful Carlson will bring any new, much needed, ad dollars to Twitter. It is even possible that more marketers will pull their ads. While at Fox News, numerous mainstream advertisers fled his show, the commercial loads were oftentimes filled with promos about Fox Nation and direct response ads and My Pillow. Fox News told Variety since Carlson’s departure dozens of new marketers have been advertising in the 8 p.m. (ET) time period.

Besides berating mainstream media, Carlson in announcing his new Twitter “show”, called it a new version of his television program which had been airing for the past six-and-one-half years. Despite the announcement Carlson remains under contract with Fox News, at $20 million per annum. Most importantly, it has been reported Carlson has a “pay or play” clause in his contract prohibiting him from working at any rival media outlet as long as Fox News pays him. Carlson’s contract expires in January 2025, after the next Presidential election.

In addition, prior to his Twitter announcement, Axios reported Carlson’s lawyers told Fox they had breached their contract by leaking his texts during the Dominion Voting defamation lawsuit. Fox News did not immediately comment. A Carlson spokesperson noted, “We will not let Fox drag this out a year.”

In his video announcement Carlson asserted, “There aren’t many platforms left that allow free speech. The last big one remaining in the world — the only one — is Twitter.” While the announcement gained a lot of media attention, how sustainable will it be? Twitter, despite its media attention craving new owner, is not Fox News. Even the right-wing leaning Musk has not been able to sustain the level of attention he first had when he acquired Twitter seven months ago.

After Carlson made his announcement, Musk tweeted, “On this platform, unlike the one-way street of broadcast, people are able to interact, critique and refute whatever he or anyone may say. I also want to be clear that we have not signed a deal of any kind whatsoever.” Musk added, “Tucker is subject to the same rules & rewards of all content creators. Tucker is subject to the same rules & rewards of all content creators.” Elon Musk was twice a guest during the final week of Carlson’s Fox News program. Whether Carlson will actually be able to permanently join Twitter (or any other media company) as the 2024 election heats up is questionable. (Musk also made an offer to recently fired CNN anchor Don Lemon to join Twitter.)

Just as Carlson needs to sustain his relevance, Fox News needs to find a permanent replacement for Carlson. The time period has been using rotating hosts for the first three weeks and has been a ratings disaster generating half of Carlson’s audience. The ratings drop-off has also impacted the audience delivery of the entire top-rated primetime lineup.

The ratings falloff is reminiscent of the post 2020 Presidential election when Fox News correctly announced Joe Biden had carried Arizona. Ratings fell as some viewers temporarily fled to Newsmax, a cable network that supported election fraud claims. Since Carlson’s departure ratings for Newsmax in the time period has again risen. Moreover, while Fox News has been the most-watched cable news network for over twenty years, since Carlson’s departure the audience delivery at 8 p.m. has fallen to its lowest since prior to 9/11.

In the past, Fox News has been able to find suitable replacements but has taken their time. Laura Ingraham joined the primetime lineup in October 2017 after Megyn Kelly left for a short-lived tenure at NBC News ten months prior. Previously, Ingraham had hosted a nationally syndicated radio program The Laura Ingraham Show. This time as their ratings plummet Fox News should be looking for a permanent host quicker than ten months.

Whether Fox News will replace Carlton with another right-wing flamethrower like Carlson or a more mainstream and ad friendly conservative remains to be seen. The network will be a number of right-wing choices available from syndicated radio hosts to podcasters and bloggers. In their most recent earnings report earlier this week Fox News CEO Lachlan Murdoch said, “There is no change to our programming strategy at Fox News.”