Summary
We don’t often see stock-market polls from fellow technicians, but invitees at an event celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Chartered Market Technicians Association in NYC were asked to forecast how the S&P 500 (SPX) would end the year. With the index drifting sideways for the past year, it’s not surprising that a majority (55%) expected the index to remain range bound between 3,750 and 4,250 — which is where we have been for most months going back to 2022. This is one of the basic tenets of technical analysis: the trend is your friend, until it isn’t. It also is known as recency bias: what recently happened is expected to continue, as it is the freshest in the mind of most investors. The poll did tilt toward the bullish side, with 31% looking for a move on the SPX to above 4,500, while 11% were bearish.
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Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/research/reports/ARGUS_36411_TechnicalAnalysis_1683630479000?yptr=yahoo&ncid=yahooproperties_plusresear_nm5q6ze1cei