Race Day Odds, Bets You Should Make, And Forte’s Big Stretch Run

The 2023 Kentucky Derby is upon us. The 149th running is laden with talent this year, but the Florida Derby winner Forte stands head and shoulders above the field. What caveats there are against the multiple Grade 1 stakes winner are minimal, as we have seen since the windows opened for the Kentucky Oaks. It is the Big Show, and there will be 19 horses raging around him, and by definition a very great deal of bad things can happen to any of the runners.

But there is no reason not to come out and say it: With the proviso of a clean trip for all nineteen, what we will see today at the finish will approximate the April 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream, the most productive of the Kentucky Derby preps. In that race, Forte and his regular jockey Irad Ortiz went five wide to get clear and ignited the jets in the last sixteenth-of-a-mile, overtaking Cyclone Mischief and Mage under a hand ride and beating them by a full length. The details of that big run may change as today’s race will inevitably take its own form. But: To this correspondent, and with zero retroactive ‘fooling,’ the last quarter-mile of Forte’s Kentucky Derby will look like the last quarter-mile of his Florida run on April 1.

From the rail out, four horses, Skinner, Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar have been scratched, which puts all three alternates — Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell as the 17th, 18th and 19th horses in the race. They will all bear their original, drawn saddlecloths of 21, 22, and 23, respectively.

We’ll bring in the Bluegrass Wise Man to help us figure out this and other developments in the race, but first, an odds primer. The coverage by NBC and NBCSports begins at noon, Eastern, and will run until 7:30 p.m. The windows opened at Churchill yesterday for the Oaks, the odds are live, the countdown to post time at 6:57 p.m. ET has begun.

(Post Position, Horse, (Morning Line), Live Churchill Odds)

1 – Hit Show (30-1), 33-1

2 – Verifying (15-1), 19-1

3 – Two Phil’s (12-1), 8-1

4 – Confidence Game (20-1), 20-1

5 – Tapit Trice (5-1), 6-1

6 – Kingsbarns (12-1), 12-1

7 – Reincarnate (50-1), 15-1

8 – Mage (15-1), 20-1

9 – Skinner (20-1) SCRATCH

10 – Practical Move (10-1) SCRATCH

11 – Disarm (30-1), 27-1 1

12 – Jace’s Road (15-1), 39-1

13 – Sun Thunder (50-1), 37-1

14 – Angel of Empire (8-1), 6-1

15 – Forte (3-1), 4-1

16 – Raise Cain (50-1), 37-1

17 – Derma Sotogake (10-1), 8-1

18 – Rocket Can (30-1), 36-1

19 – Lord Miles (30-1) SCRATCH

20 – Continuar (50-1) SCRATCH

21 – Cyclone Mischief (AE) (30-1), 39-1

22 – Mandarin Hero (AE) (22-1), 26-1

23 – King Russell (AE) (50-1), 39-1

(Source: Churchill Downs, 5/6/2023)

If he holds to form and parses his customary $2-million-or-so in little bundles out over the course of the meeting’s two days, the lovably outrageous Mississippi-born Texas owner and furniture-store magnate, Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale will have begun yesterday to dole out his traditional gargantuan play-on-the-nose of Forte, the hands-down favorite. We won’t know until later in the afternoon at Churchill what he’s actually done.

But! As in the last few years, Matress Mack’s style of laying down his million-plus on the favorite over 48 hours of the Oaks and the Derby is an attempt not to depress, in today’s case, Forte’s odds too suddenly or completely, thus not destroying his payout, (should there be one). His theory is that his betting style allows other players to enter the market on other horses, which become more or less overlays as the odds leader is (gradually) freighted with cash, so that the tote bears a semblance of normalcy. The jury is very much out on that theory, since a massive depression of the odds on any favorite can drive players away from that athlete to his competition.

What Forte does on the track that counts more, so, with all dispatch, we present the Bluegrass Wise Man.

Let’s break down Forte’s stretch runs. He brings it late. It’s his character.

Bluegrass Wise Man: There are advantages and disadvantages to that style. In his case, he has a long stride. That means, if he gets in traffic in a big field and has to stop and re-accelerate, that could be difficult as it will slow momentum. The Derby’s fields are huge and there is always traffic. That is Irad’s job to not get him stopped. This is not the kind of thing that you should want to change, and it is the kind of characteristic that you probably couldn’t change even if you tried. Forte likes to be behind horses and get relaxed. He simply would prefer to not be near the front and take his time and then make the one big run. It’s who he is.

Ortiz did just that taking him wide in the Florida, no?

Bluegrass Wise Man: I can’t remember the figure Todd (Trainer Todd Pletcher) mentioned in passing after the race, but I think he said Forte probably ran a sixteenth-of-a-mile more than everybody else because Irad had to take him out so wide. Like five lanes.

Bottom line, was Florida a decisive win or not? Because as we noted, some folks are playing that win down.

Bluegrass Wise Man: And that is a big mistake. Forte showed up in Florida ready to rumble and won by a length despite the traffic. Irad mentioned the three-eighths pole in Florida. You have 660 yards from the 3/8th pole, each furlong is 220 yards. Everybody wants to save ground but the bigger thing is to not get stopped in traffic. Irad will be looking for the clearest path possible, and perhaps go a little further, in order to not get stopped. Traffic is the only danger out there for Forte today, but he’s got Irad, who’s one of the best in the world. In Florida, Forte didn’t even look like he was going to do anything better than show until the last hundred or so yards. I call that a racehorse.

Some money’s migrating over to Two Phil’s. Is that part of the ‘Mattress Mack Effect’?

Bluegrass Wise Man: Hard to say what Mattress Mack is gonna wreck, or when, exactly, but he does it every year and last year lost spectacularly, so it’s best not to pay it too much mind. But yeah, basically, some money went over to Two Phil’s yesterday. I’m not a huge believer in that horse myself, in fact I’m gonna toss out of my exotics. Here’s why: His Louisiana races were great and he blitzed the field in the Jeff Ruby but that was on the synthetic Polytrack surface. He has won over this track and I think he is a solid colt. But he will have to run his career best dirt race to win. First time Derby jock seals the deal for me. Not gonna use him.

Which leads us perfectly to those famous Wise Man exotics today. Who’s in?

Bluegrass Wise Man: The Wise Man likes Forte to the point that I’ll use him on all tickets. I’ll also use Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Disarm and Derma Sotogake. Like all the Pletcher horses but it seems really unlikely that all three will be in the first half. It’s the Derby. You always go back and look at the race chart and wonder how one of the very best never gets a stiff.

Wait! Derma Sotogake?

Bluegrass Wise Man: I do think the Japanese are bringing something real and I like the regimen and I think this horse will show us something. Can he take down Forte? Anything can happen out there, but I don’t think that will happen. Play him in the box.