Audience Measurement Is The Biggest Question In This Year’s TV/Video Upfronts

It is widely expected the upcoming TV/video upfront will have marketers allocating a greater share of their ad budget toward connected TV. This will make cross-platform audience measurement far more important than in previous years. At the center is Nielsen
NLSN
, which for decades has been the lone source of audience measurement for negotiating ad time.

In anticipation of the upcoming 2023-24 season, last January, several prominent programmers, large ad agencies and the Video Advertising Bureau announced the formation of a “Joint Industry Committee” (which in reality is a multi-currency certifying committee). The goal is to offer multi-currency measurement solutions for TV/video audiences instead of relying solely on Nielsen. Nielsen announced they will not be a participant in the JIC.

On April 17 Nielsen had its accreditation from the Media Rating Council for their national panel-based audience measurement methodology reinstated, ending a 19-month suspension. The reason for Nielsen’s suspension was during the pandemic, the MRC had estimated their panel of 42,000 households had undercounted viewers by 2% to 5%. This underreporting led to an ad revenue loss in the hundreds of millions. It was the latest in a series of Nielsen miscalculations that have, through the years, infuriated television networks. Since Nielsen was the lone supplier, audience measurement programmers and advertisers had little alternatives.

This time however, with the arrival of several newly launched ad tech companies, the availability of “big data” (from cable/satellite, smart TV’s, etc.) and the influx of ad supported streaming video, has resulted in the need for larger data sets for audience measurement and negotiating. Programmers and marketers saw an alternative to Nielsen. In January, Comcast
CMCSA
-NBCUniversal, Paramount
PARA
Global, Fox, Warner Bros. Discovery
WBD
and TelevisaUnivision created its JIC. Soon thereafter, other programmers as well as prominent ad agencies joined. The VAB represented smaller programmers. Organizing the JIC is OpenAP, an advanced advertising company formed in 2017 by several media conglomerates.

Among the stated goals of the JIC was to set the standards and criteria needed to certify multiple measurement currencies for the premium video ad marketplace. Seven audience measurement companies were invited to take part in the certification process; Comscore
SCOR
, iSpot, Nielsen, Samba TV, Innovid-TVSquared, VideoAmp and 605. The JIC set an April 28 deadline for all submissions for the first round of certification. The goal is to have the certification completed next year.

In its initial certification standard, the JIC cited measurement providers should just use audience base measurement and limit their use of panels which are too small in this fragmented video landscape. On April 22 (five days after their accreditation was reinstated), Nielsen announced they would not participate in the JIC’s certification process citing the committee’s greater focus on “big data” instead of panels.

Furthermore, Nielsen cited the initial round of JIC’s certification process does not include MRC accreditation as a criterion, raising concerns. The JIC has noted their certification process is not designed to replace the MRC. Presently, there are no audience measurement companies using “big data” that are accredited by the MRC, although several are undergoing an audit. Comscore, a long-time Nielsen rival and an invited participant in the JIC certification process, agreed with Nielsen in the need for new currencies to have an MRC accreditation. (In April Comscore had their MRC accreditation revoked for Media Metrix, a digital desktop audience measurement service.)

Nielsen also cited the issue of protecting their intellectual property and potential antitrust issues. Furthermore, Nielsen noted that Disney, Amazon
AMZN
, Netflix
NFLX
and YouTube are all not participating in the JIC.

In response, the JIC issued a four-paragraph response, saying in part, “No one measurement company should be able to influence the requirements to benefit certification over the competition. Collaboration is the only way to move this industry forward.”

On April 27, the JIC hosted a pre-upfront conference to provide an update. The conference included a number of programmers, agencies and measurement companies, notably Nielsen was not in attendance. Nielsen’s absence was one of the subjects addressed. The event began with the JIC repudiating Nielsen’s claims. John Halley, president of advertising at Paramount noted, Nielsen’s assertion that the JIC should require the TV currencies it certifies to have MRC accreditation is “flawed.” Halley said Nielsen is “weaponizing the MRC” and noted Nielsen has in the past, “put multiple products in the market without MRC accreditation.”

Jon Steinlauf, chief U.S. ad sales officer, Warner Bros. Discovery said in part, “I feel, for 20 television networks under my watch, I worry about the size of the panel and I worry about the stability of the panel and I worry about the median age. “I think what’s wrong right now, is we’re trading $60 billion dollars a year – but I’m not sure if we have a big enough sample.” Kelly Abcarian, executive VP, NBCU commented, “We’re going to continue to offer our clients the ability to transact in a multi-currency world using data we trust and have confidence in.”

After two years of testing, last January Nielsen brought to market Nielsen One Ads, the first of their two cross-platform measurement products. The goal had been to allow clients time to evaluate and use for this year’s upfront. Nielsen One, which is not accredited by the MRC, relies on big data from cable/satellite companies and automated content recognition (ACR) from “smart TVs” with a proprietary identity solution validated by Nielsen’s national panel.

In April Nielsen announced for the 2023 season they would not be including big data as part of their main currency measurement offering, staying with their legacy panel-based measurement. The delay came at the request of the VAB citing issues of accuracy and consistency. The use of Nielsen One as the primary negotiating currency was pushed back to 2024, although this year it will be used for Spanish language programming and available for measurement and negotiating.

In early May Nielsen said the Alpha version of its Nielsen One system designed to measure content is now being used by clients including Disney, Mediahub, Sony Pictures Television, TelevisaUnivision, AMC Networks
AMCX
and Horizon. Nielsen notes, the Alpha version focuses on program-level measurement across platforms. It is expected to be used more broadly next year.

Prior to this year’s upfront there are examples of a multiple measurement currency. Warner Bros. Discovery selected Comscore and VideoAmp as audience measurement partners for the 2023 upfront. NBCU has had a partnership with iSpot. Paramount Global has been working with VideoAmp.

With screenwriters going on strike prior to the upfronts it could delay program production for months. CBS has announced they have postponed the release of the fall programming lineup at an event scheduled for May 9. The programming schedule will be released via a press release.