iPhone Sales Are Key for Apple. India Could Move the Needle.

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iPhones has felt the heat from high inflation and supply- chain shocks. India could turn things around.

Market participants are trying to gauge Apple’s smartphone sales for the second quarter of its fiscal year, which will be announced on May 4. Credit Suisse analyst Shannon Cross expects Apple to report more revenue than anticipated because the reopening of China’s economy following the prolonged lockdowns meant to fight Covid-19 should boost demand for iPhones, she said in a research note this month. But Morgan Stanley Research analyst Erik Woodring expects an in-line quarter in terms of revenue, saying Apple’s iPhone sales for the June quarter will be hurt by a “tepid demand environment globally,” he wrote on Monday.

The consensus among analysts is that Apple will bring in $84.5 billion in revenue for the quarter that ends in June. Woodring thinks Apple will forecast $80 billion as a result of iPhone-related troubles.

The confusion comes as the world’s most valuable company attempts to recover from recent struggles. Consumers’ worries about inflation, combined with the November shutdown of the largest factory iPhone in China due to Covid-19, led to an 8% year-over-year decline in iPhone sales for Apple’s first fiscal quarter, the three months through December.

The production problems underscored the need for Apple to diversify its supply chain. Tensions between the U.S. and China further drive home the risk of concentrating production there. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on April 20 said that while the U.S. seeks a “fair economic relationship with China,” national security is paramount.

Planting seeds in India could help in the long term. For one, iPhone penetration in India remains low, leaving room for sales to rise. The Apple phones cost more than $367, so they fall in the premium segment of the market, which last year made up only 11% of India’s smartphone shipments, according to Counterpoint Research data. That means Android models are capturing the vast majority of the market.

In a call discussing earnings on Feb. 2, management said it was seeing record levels of people switching from Androids in India and Mexico. This month, the company opened its first Indian store in Mumbai, followed by a New Delhi outlet, as it seeks to make inroads.

D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte said in a Thursday research note he is confident Apple can be much more diversified, boosting both iPhone sales and production in India.

“China accounts for 70% of all smartphone manufacturing,” he wrote. “India represents 16% of smartphone manufacturing today and, at the minimum, we expect Apple to continue to ramp its efforts in that country.” Forte has a Buy rating on the stock.

Foxconn
,
the biggest producer of iPhones, raised expectations that India might take a bigger share of production last month when Young Liu, its chairman, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The chairman visited Bengaluru and Hyderabad, cities known for their IT dominance. Ministers in Modi’s cabinet have touted India’s goal to manufacture $300 billion worth of electronic goods a year by 2026. The setting up of large factories would increase employment and might attract more manufacturers to the country.

Apple reports its earnings after the close of trading on Thursday. Investors will be closely listening for any news related to India on the earnings call. According to a Bloomberg report this month, almost 7% of iPhones are now made in India, compared with 1% in 2021.

Apple’s stock was up nearly 1% on Friday to $169.68. It’s up almost 31% this year.

Write to Karishma Vanjani at [email protected].