The End Of Overpriced NBA Star Trades Might Be Near Due To New CBA

In recent years the NBA has been cluttered with star trades where teams have given up essentially their entire future for one player.

Just last summer the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Minnesota Timberwolves gave up major hauls for Dejounte Murray, Donovan Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert respectively, leaving them significantly drier in terms of available draft picks.

And, just two months ago, the Phoenix Suns relinquished a high-end starter in Cameron Johnson, a breakout performer in Mikal Bridges, and a plethora of draft picks for Kevin Durant.

In short: If you were a franchise with a star to trade to away, you were guaranteed an absolutely major return.

With more and more details coming out about the league’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), however, those days might be coming to an end, as the introduction of a second apron will force teams to be more cost conscious, increasing the value of draft picks.

How so, you may wonder.

First round selections come with a set salary slot, which is of significantly less value than the player’s worth, especially seen through the lens of their next contract. The rookie scale remains one of the most advantageous contract types in the NBA, and they last for four seasons.

For teams with a high payroll, having the ability to lower overall costs by going the route of rookie wages will now be more important than ever, especially if ownership isn’t on board paying into the deep ends of the luxury tax.

As such, when the value of draft picks increases, it closes the door on a recent past where they were thrown around like candy.

No longer will teams be willing to fork over 3-4 unprotected first round selections unless the player they get in return is a fully-fledged superstar, and ownership is willing to pay up for a championship contender.

Trades like we saw in 2021, where the Chicago Bulls ended up relinquishing a young starter in Wendell Carter – still on his rookie deal at the time – a lottery selection that same year, plus what looks like an additional lottery selection this year, for Nikola Vučević.. those days should be over with.

So, what does this mean for teams?

It depends on where they are in their overall process. For teams that invested big in a star, like the Cavs did with Mitchell, it’s fair to wonder if they can ever replenish their cupboard of assets by moving off of him at a later date.

Mitchell remains rumored to be eyeing the New York Knicks at his first opportunity, according to Jason Lloyd of The Athletic. If so, the Cavs will need to trade him before he leaves, as to actually get something in return. But that return will pale in comparison to what they gave up, suggesting that most teams that gave up their future for one player, will now find themselves in a situation where they cannot recoup that investment, and will have to see it through on the court.

This isn’t necessarily a good or a bad thing for the league, when the new value begins to set in. It’s a new future, sure, and player values will need to be reevaluated. More than likely, most teams will be hesitant to make major moves for a short while, until the market has settled in, and everyone knows what the new market value is on guys.

Just like with everything else, it’s about making the proper adjustments, and reading the market.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.