Liverpool’s Lucrative Champions League Qualification Hangs In The Balance

Every time qualification for the most lucrative and prestigious competition in European football has seemed to be slipping away from Liverpool this season, a glimmer of hope emerges around the corner.

Just when fans might finally be resigned to their team being out, they pull them back in.

The most recent cause for hope was a 3-2 win at Anfield against Nottingham Forest which followed on from a 6-1 win away to Leeds United.

These back-to-back wins ended a run of four league games without a victory—made up of two defeats and two draws—and had Jürgen Klopp’s side looking up the table once again.

Liverpool has enjoyed Champions League status for the past six seasons, but despite there being some hope remaining there is the realistic possibility that status could be about to come to an end.

The top four teams in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League and at the moment those four look set to be Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester Untied, and Newcastle United.

The most probable finishing position for Liverpool is somewhere between 5th and 8th

Liverpool currently sits 7th in the table and the win against Forest put them within six points of Newcastle at the time.

Though Tottenham Hotspur is also ahead of Liverpool in the table, a win for the North London side against Newcastle in the same round last weekend would have spread the points out somewhat and made the race for the top four more interesting.

As it was, Newcastle dismantled Spurs, scoring five goals in 20 minutes and 11 seconds, further solidifying the Magpies position in the Champions League qualification places.

There are still 21 points to play for, though, so there is plenty of time for the picture to change once again between now and the end of the season, and this is what provides a glimmer of hope for Liverpool.

On top of this, it is likely that teams finishing fifth and sixth in the Premier League, rather than just the team in fifth, will qualify for the Europa League due to Manchester United or City winning the FA Cup and both likely to finish in the Champions League spots.

So the most likely scenario is that Liverpool will claim a place in the Europa League next season if the club is able to overtake either Tottenham or Aston Villa, on whom they have games in hand.

Should Liverpool finish 7th, it would mean a place in the Europa Conference League as the place for an English team in this competition will go to league placing rather than the EFL Cup winner—again because EFL Cup winners Manchester United is likely to finish in a Champions League spot.

There is still plenty to play for, and indeed plenty to lose should results to be maintained.

8th place Brighton have been very impressive this season, as have Aston Villa, so none of these European qualification spots will come easily.

The drop down from Champions League to the Europa League or Conference League is significant in terms of price money. There is a reason the top four spots are so coveted.

For example, prize money for the current season of the Champions League included €15.64 million for each team playing in the group stage compared to €3.63 million in the Europa League and €2.94 million in the Conference League

On top of this, teams are awarded €2.8 million per group stage win in the Champions League which drops to €630,000 for a group stage win in the Europa League and €500,000 in the Conference League.

Prize money throughout the various stages of the Champions League is similarly much higher than in those other two tournaments and this, combined with the prestige of appearing at Europe’s top table, is why Liverpool will not give up on top four until it is mathematically impossible.