Will Poles Find A “Blue” Player Waiting At 9 Or Trade Down Again?

Ryan Poles has already turned one draft pick into five players. Will he stop there?

With the draft finally approaching fast, the Bears’ second-year general manager is weighing whether to compound the trade he made with Indianapolis for the first overall pick by trading down again. Poles now holds No. 9 overall, which appears to have a lot of value with as many as five quarterbacks receiving first-round consideration.

Tennessee, Houston (if it doesn’t take a quarterback with the second overall pick), Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Seattle and New Orleans are all believed to be exploring trades that would position them to select a quarterback. The price to do business with the Bears depends on how far Poles would have to move down.

The Titans select only two picks after the Bears, 11th. The price of a trade would go up if the Bears are asked to drop to 12 (Texans), 16 (Commanders), 17 (Steelers), 19 (Buccaneers), 20 (Seahawks) or 29 (Saints).

It’s possible to estimate the result of those moves given how closely NFL teams follow the so-called Jimmy Johnson chart for draft values.

Take the Steelers, for example. The Johnson chart places the value of the ninth pick at 1350 versus 950 for the 17th pick. The 50th pick carries a value of 400, making it the ideal gain for a team moving down those eight spots. Pittsburgh has two picks in the second round — the 32nd, which it acquired from Poles for receiver Chase Claypool, and the 49th.

By passing on the best player it could take at nine, the Bears could pick 17 and 49 (and possibly add one or two of Pittsburgh’s seventh-round picks). The question Poles must resolve before the pick arrives on Thursday night is whether 17+49 is greater than 9, or similar math with another team interested in moving up.

Before signing off on the trade for the first pick, Poles told NBC Sports’ Peter King he’d consider moving it because he felt he would still be able to land a “blue player,” using his term for premier first-rounders.

The Bears’ decision could depend on whether polarizing defensive tackle Jalen Carter — seen as an ideal player for coach Matt Eberflus’ three-technique spot in the middle of the line — slides past teams like Seattle and Detroit. Are top offensive linemen Paris Johnson Jr. and Peter Skoronski truly “blue” players or interchangeable with the likes of Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright?

Can Poles be satisfied with Jones, Wright or an interior lineman like Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey or Michigan’s Mazi Smith as the Bears’ top pick? If the answer is yes, then he’ll almost certainly make a deal when he is on the clock Thursday.

Pro Football Focus’ latest mock draft has the Bears selecting Iowa edge rusher Lukas Van Ness with the ninth pick, after the top four quarterbacks are off the board. But what if C.J. Stroud, Will Levis or Anthony Richardson slide after the Colts select Bryce Young? What if a team is motivate to reach for Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who was considered on the level of Levis and Richardson before tearing his ACL?

In place of selecting Van Ness or someone like him, the Bears could land the 16th and 47th picks from Washington — potentially putting them in place to add Jones or Wright and interior defender Siaki Aka (Baylor) — or the 20th and 37th from Seattle. That haul could potentially equate to Jones or Wright and Kancey or Smith, or maybe a combination like Oklahoma tackle Anton Harrison and interior defender Keeanu Benton (Wisconsin).

For the 3-14 Bears, the chance to upgrade at multiple positions has to be very attractive. If they traded down from nine they could have five of the top 64 picks.

Poles has shown a tendency to move down in drafts. He turned six picks into 11 in last year’s draft, adding five late-round spots in a flurry of deals.

The deal with Indianapolis sent the Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore in addition to a late second-round pick and future first- and second-rounders. That’s a running start on a draft Chicago fans could look back on fondly.