The Boston Celtics Cannot Afford To Take The Atlanta Hawks For Granted

The Boston Celtics’ two biggest enemies in the regular season have been injuries and themselves, not necessarily in that order. So, they have to be encouraged that yesterday’s injury report only included a single name: Danilo Gallinari. With this afternoon’s Game 1 against the Atlanta Hawks on the horizon, the Celtics have two goals: stay healthy and not take anything for granted.

First, let’s clear things up: just because the entire team is available, it doesn’t mean that everybody (or anybody at this point of the season) will be at 100% in this upcoming series. Before the injury report emerged, Celtics fans were worried about the state of Jaylen Brown’s index finger, after he slashed it on glass in a freak injury at the end of the regular season.

“Feeling a lot better, I’ll tell you that,” Brown told the media yesterday, as quoted by NBA.com’s Taylor Snow, “Just working to get some reps in. I’ll be ready for tomorrow.”

Hopefully Brown’s not just being overconfident here, because Brown has put together an All-NBA caliber season. Averaging 26.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, Brown’s always-steady play was a big reason that the Celtics ended the regular season with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference.

He’s not their only injury concern, however. One of the key reasons that the Celtics, despite some highly impressive stretches, missed out on that overall top seed was that Robert Williams, who the team hoped to pencil-in as their starting center only played 35 games after off-season surgery and subsequent health setbacks. When Williams is at peak strength, this Celtics team almost certainly has the most dangerous lineup in the NBA, when he’s not, they’re merely very good.

When predicting an Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks in The Athletic, John Hollinger gave Boston an edge based solely on the status of the big man. “Since this series is likely the de facto NBA Finals, it’s a huge one,” he wrote. “And I think it comes down to Williams’ health. The Celtics are probably a big man short against this team if Williams isn’t available.”

The stakes have not been this high for Boston basketball since they were pinning their championship hopes on the broken body of Shaquille O’Neal back in 2011. While the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown Celtics overachieved in the early years of their partnership, nothing less than a championship will satisfy this fanbase, particularly after they looked not-quite-ready-for-prime-time against the Golden State Warriors in last year’s NBA Finals.

Barring an extension, Brown will be in his walk year next season and his name will almost certainly pop up in trade rumors as long as he’s in Boston. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum is very close to his peak and Al Horford, who already doesn’t play back-to-back games, will be another year removed from his. The Celtics can’t assume that they will ever have a better chance of winning a title than they do right now, which is why Wyc Grousbeck opened up his pocketbooks and paid the luxury tax over the summer.

While the Celtics are heavily favored over the eighth-seeded Hawks, they should know not to take a series win for granted. The Celtics have played 71 playoff games against the Hawks, winning 42 of them. While Boston has a 10-2 record all-time in playoff series against Atlanta, the Hawks took them to seven games in 2008 and 2012 and eventually beat them in six in 2016.

The Celtics should win this series, assuming they avoid that nasty injury bug. However, this occasionally frustrating season has featured far too many games where Boston has underestimated its opponents. There is too much on the line this season, for them to fall into the trap now that the games matter the most.

Part of the reason the Celtics fell short of the title last year—beyond the fact that Steph Curry went supernova—is that they had played too many games on their way to the NBA Finals. A short series against what should be their weakest opponent would not only help keep their legs fresh, it would also limit the opportunities for their key players to suffer major injuries. How the Celtics’ postseason ends could depend on how it begins.