Tobias Harris Is The Sixers’ Biggest X-Factor In The 2023 NBA Playoffs

Heading into the 2023 NBA playoffs, the Philadelphia 76ers know what to expect from most of their top rotation members.

Joel Embiid, who led the league in scoring this season, will be their offensive centerpiece and their defensive fulcrum. James Harden, who led the NBA in assists, will be their half-court table-setter. Tyrese Maxey will be a secondary ball-handler and an offensive spark plug. P.J. Tucker will provide physical defense and timely offensive rebounds. De’Anthony Melton will add a splash of everything, befitting of his “Mr. Do Something” moniker.

That leaves Tobias Harris as the Sixers’ mystery man. There’s no way to know what he’ll offer on a night-to-night basis, which makes him their big X-factor heading into the playoffs.

Harris finished the regular season averaging only 14.7 points per game, his lowest mark since the 2015-16 campaign. He had nearly as many single-digit scoring outings (15) as he did games with at least 20 points (18). He also had as many games with 10 or more rebounds (eight) as he did games with two or fewer, and he had nearly as many games with five or more assists (10) as he did with zero (eight).

Embiid, Harden and Maxey pushed Harris down the Sixers’ offensive totem pole, leaving him as an afterthought on most nights. He often spots up along the perimeter and serves as a catch-and-shoot threat for a double-teamed Embiid or Maxey and Harden off drive-and-kicks. But he rarely finishes plays on cuts (only 4.7% of his overall possessions), handoffs (2.6% of his possessions) or as the roll man in pick-and-rolls (1.7% of his possessions), which limits his offensive utility.

Harris has knocked down 38.7% of his catch-and-shoot three-point attempts this season and averaged 1.09 points per possession on spot-ups, which ranked in the 68th percentile leaguewide. The Sixers will need him to continue making opponents pay when they sag off him to shade extra help toward Embiid or Harden in particular. Beyond that, he can serve as a change-of-pace post-up option, as he’s averaging 1.10 points per possession (78th percentile leaguewide) on those plays.

Ever since the Sixers hired him in 2020, head coach Doc Rivers has emphasized the need for Harris to make quick decisions with the ball. When he takes a shot without dribbling this season, Harris has an effective field-goal percentage of 62.4%. When he takes seven or more dribbles, that plummets to 46.6%.

If Harris doesn’t pull the trigger on a shot right away, the Sixers need him to swing the ball quickly. Forcing defenses to rotate could lead to a breakdown later in a possession, even if he isn’t directly responsible for it. If he hesitates to fire away on open shots and instead tries to create on his own, defenses will happily live with that.

All season, Rivers and the Sixers have emphasized that every player needs to be a star in their specific roles. They won’t go into the playoffs expecting 20-plus points from Harris on a nightly basis. They just
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need him to embrace being a quick decision-maker, regardless of whether it leads to a shot or a pass.

Harris might be even more of an X-factor on defense in the playoffs. Tucker figures to draw the primary wing assignment—whether it’s Brooklyn Nets forward Mikal Bridges in Round 1 or Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum in the Eastern Conference Semifinals—but Harris will switch onto those guys occasionally as well.

Harris didn’t log much time against Tatum or Bridges during the regular season (less than 21 combined minutes), but they went 10-of-16 with him as their primary defender. Boston wing Jaylen Brown was far less effective (4-of-12) in his 16-plus minutes against Harris, which could be a potential blueprint for how to match up if the Celtics and Sixers do clash in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Harris is by no means a lockdown defender, but he’s done a better job holding his own on that end of the floor this season. Rivers commended him for his improvement earlier this year, particularly citing his ability to switch.

“We talk about it a lot,” he said. “We started him out on a point guard tonight. Just moving your feet. Keeping the ball in front. Using your body, your length. And then when we put him on Paul George, now we have him denying catches. So, he’s just working hard. He knows there’s nights he’s gonna get the ball, there’s nights that he’s not gonna get the ball, but there’s other ways to help teams win, and he’s doing that.”

Ever since Harris signed his five-year, $180 million contract in 2019, he’s been a popular scapegoat for Sixers fans. He’s the highest-paid player on the team this year, but he’s producing more like a No. 3 or No. 4 option. There’s no reason to expect that to change in the playoffs if Embiid, Harden and Maxey all stay healthy.

While Harris’ per-game production may never match his hefty salary, the Sixers can’t do anything about it until the offseason at the earliest. In the meantime, they can only hope that he fills a jack-of-all-trades role in the playoffs, filling in gaps alongside Melton wherever and whenever needed.

Whether it’s a timely bucket or a critical defensive stop, the Sixers will inevitably need Harris to come through in big moments throughout this postseason run. If he does, they’ll have a realistic shot at ending their 40-year championship drought.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.