Secrets About Allies, Alliances With Russia And Doubts About Ukraine’s Strength

Topline

The U.S. intelligence documents leaked on social media over the past two months cast doubt on the federal government’s public display of confidence in Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russian forces and indicate vulnerabilities in key U.S. partnerships, according to new revelations about the disclosures that come as U.S. officials scramble to assess the scope of the damage.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the … [+] National Security Council John Kirby take questions during the daily press briefing at the White House on April 10, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Department of Defense officials have said the leaks—which include more than 100 military documents, some labeled top-secret, posted to the Kremlin-linked Telegram app, Twitter and video game chat platform Discord, among other social media channels—were larger in scale than they initially estimated, Politico reported Monday, citing senior Pentagon officials.

The U.S. has not revealed the source of the leaks or whether it expects more documents to surface, creating a sense of chaos and uncertainty within the Department of Defense, where one official told Politico “the mood is anger” and another said “I’m sick to my stomach.”

The documents contain a trove of information about Ukrainian military efforts, including a “top secret” file that contradicts President Joe Biden’s public expressions of confidence in Ukraine by revealing U.S. officials believe Ukrainian forces could run out of weapons within a matter of weeks and fall “well short” of their goals for a spring counter-offensive against Russia, according to multiple reports.

Some of the leaked files reveal key U.S. allies have aligned with Russian forces: Egypt, a close partner to the U.S. in the Middle East, planned to send 40,000 rockets to Russia and wanted to cover up the deal to “avoid problems with the West,” President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi said, according to the Washington Post, citing documents that surfaced on Discord in February and March.

The United Arab Emirates, another U.S. partner in the Middle East, has strengthened its ties with Russia, according to the documents, which reveal U.S. spies caught Russian intelligence officers bragging that they were working with the UAE to thwart U.S.-UK efforts to aid Ukraine, the Associated Press reported—a finding that gives merit to growing U.S. concerns that the UAE was allowing Russia to skirt U.S.-imposed sanctions.

The documents show South Korean officials worried about sending a new shipment of weapons to the U.S. out of fear that the artillery would end up in the hands of Ukrainian military forces, the New York Times reported, citing records of conversations between top South Korean national security officials.

Crucial Quote

“The truth and the honest answer to your question is: We don’t know. And is that a matter of concern to us? You’re darn right it is,” National Security spokesperson John Kirby said Monday when asked by reporters if it expected more documents to surface online.

Chief Critic

Some of the foreign governments whose intelligence secrets were leaked denied the revelations and expressed discontent about U.S. spying operations. The Emirati government on Monday called accusations of coordination with Russia “categorically false.” South Korea criticized the U.S. surveillance efforts, calling them a “super-scale security breach” and accusing the U.S. of “violating the sovereignty” of the countries’ partnership, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the South Korean Democratic Party, told reporters on Tuesday, while insisting the revelations would not damage South Korea’s relationship with the U.S. Lee also cast doubt on the documents’ legitimacy, without specifying which ones might be fake. Ukrainian officials interviewed by the Washington Post, however, said that it’s common knowledge that its military was running short on weapons. “It’s partially true,” one unnamed official said.

Key Background

The New York Times first revealed on April 6 that Pentagon officials were investigating an initial batch of documents leaked on Twitter and Telegram that detailed U.S. and NATO plans to aid Ukraine in its spring counter-offensive against Russia. Officials reportedly believed the documents were heavily modified and contained false information about the number of fatalities associated with the war. A new trove of files were discovered the following day that included military secrets related to China and terrorism in the Middle East. While U.S. officials have said they have yet to determine the source of the leaks, Ukrainian officials have suggested they were part of an anti-Ukrainian disinformation effort to compromise its progress in the war. The Justice Department has opened an investigation into the leaks and senators have requested a classified briefing on the security breach.

Contra

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov denied Russia had any responsibility for the leaks on Monday, telling reporters “all we know is that there is in fact an inclination to always blame Russia for everything.”

Tangent

In addition to revelations about the war in Ukraine, the documents disclose intelligence secrets about a multitude of other countries, the Washington Post reported. They include details of conversations between Iranian officials about how to steer press coverage of Iran’s nuclear weapons research, and intelligence that shows Israeli officials advocated for citizens to protest judicial reforms (the Israeli government denied the accusation).