Sixers’ Joel Embiid Appears Headed For His First NBA MVP Award

In each of the past two seasons, Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid has finished as the runner-up behind Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic in the NBA’s Most Valuable Player race. This year, Embiid appears poised to turn the tables on Jokic and win his first MVP award.

MVP odds are no longer on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook, but Embiid was a commanding -1000 favorite to win the award as of last week. Jokic and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo were each +1200, while Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum was the only other player on the board at +24000.

Awards ballots were due to the NBA at 6 p.m. ET on Monday. Of the 19 awards voters who’ve already revealed their pick for MVP, 14 chose Embiid, three chose Antetokounmpo and two chose Jokic, according to an ongoing compilation of ballots. The race might not wind up being that lopsided—only two total points separated Embiid and Jokic in the final MVP straw poll from ESPN’s Tim Bontemps in late March—but the early returns bode well for Embiid’s chances of taking home the award.

The race was close in the betting markets until Embiid dropped 52 points on 20-of-25 shooting in a late-season win over the Boston Celtics in early April. Embiid’s odds quickly soared from there, particularly since Jokic and the Nuggets got blown out by the bottom-feeding Houston Rockets on the same night.

“The man just
just
scored half of our points in an NBA game,” Sixers head coach Doc Rivers told reporters after the game. “And I’m biased, but the MVP race is over.”

Rivers wasn’t the only one in awe of Embiid’s performance against the Celtics. Longtime former Boston Globe writer Bob Ryan called it “one of the most impressive clinical offensive performances I’ve ever seen in 54 years of NBA coverage and 59 years of NBA in-person attendance.”

While that outing might have clinched MVP for Embiid, he vaulted himself into the race with a season-long tour de force. After winning the NBA’s scoring title with 30.6 points per game on 49.9% shooting last season, he one-upped himself in both scoring volume (a league-high 33.1 points per game) and efficiency (a career-high 54.8% from the field) this season. In doing so, he became the first center since Bob McAdoo in the mid-1970s to finish as the NBA’s leading scorer in back-to-back seasons.

With Embiid as the fulcrum of their attack, the Sixers finished the regular season with the league’s third-best offensive rating and the fourth-best half-court offense. Not only did he annihilate most challengers at the basket—he shot 81.0% on attempts at the rim—but he also knocked down 48.7% of his mid-range attempts this season. That put him right in line with the likes of Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (49.4%) and Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (49.2%), two of the most lethal three-level scorers in the NBA.

Foul-drawing has long been a key to Embiid’s scoring totals, and this season was no different. He knocked down a career-high 10.0 free throws per game while shooting 85.7% from the charity stripe. In doing so, he became only the sixth player in NBA history to shoot at least 85% from the line while attempting at least 11 free throws per game. (Embiid’s teammate, James Harden, is the only player to do so twice.)

Although Embiid’s combination of scoring volume and efficiency is nearly unprecedented in NBA history—he’s one of only three players ever to average 30-plus points with a true shooting percentage north of 65—Jokic may be even more impactful on that end of the floor. He can’t hold a candle to Embiid in terms of scoring volume (24.5 points per game), but he lapped Embiid in both efficiency (63.2% shooting) and assists (9.8 per game).

However, Embiid is a far more impactful defender than Jokic, despite what certain advanced metrics might otherwise suggest. As ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry recently detailed, opponents “shot 54.2% on layups and dunks when Jokic is the contesting defender and he heavily contests the shot,” which was the second-worst mark among the 65 players with at least 250 such possessions. Jokic also allowed the second-highest shooting percentage (68.5%) among the 40 players who defended at least 300 shots at the rim this season.

Despite Jokic’s limitations as a rim protector, any of he, Antetokounmpo and Embiid would be worthy choices for MVP this season. However, the award can only go to one of them. And a growing chorus of players appear to believe it’s Embiid’s time this season.

“Any person you pick, their body of work could be compared to Jokić or Giannis,” Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry told Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes. “But Joel took a leap that I think a lot of people didn’t expect because he was dominant already. That leap turned heads and put Philly in a great position. If I had to pick, it would be him.”

If last season is any indication, the NBA likely won’t reveal who won MVP until early-to-mid May. By that point, the Sixers could be deep into a likely Eastern Conference semifinals showdown against the Celtics.

Regardless of what happens in that series, Embiid’s potential coronation as MVP will give Sixers fans a reason to celebrate this season.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.