Non Indictment Poll News

Wall-to-wall media and poll coverage of Donald Trump’s indictment has obscured many new poll results in other areas that could have a big impact in 2024. Here are some that caught our eye.

Leading Indicators: In the Fox News poll, a stubborn 73% of registered voters said inflation had caused hardship in their family, virtually unchanged from December’s response. In the March Harvard/Harris poll, a plurality of registered voters, 44%, correctly identified the annual inflation rate. The public’s view of Biden’s handling of the economy in all the recent polls is dismal. The polls mentioned in this column were all conducted before the news that gas prices, one of the most sensitive public opinion indicators, are likely to rise again after the Saudi’s announcement of a production cut. Fifty-four percent in the Fox poll approved of the administration’s plan to move forward with the oil drilling Willow Project in northern Alaska, while 38% disapproved.

An Unexpected Expense: In late March Quinnipiac’s new poll, 25% said it would be very difficult to pay an unexpected bill of $1,000 and 27% said it would be somewhat difficult. Twenty percent responded “not too difficult” and 27% not difficult at all. When the Fox News poll asked respondents how many paychecks they could miss before they couldn’t pay their bills, 17% said they couldn’t miss a single one and 21% only one. Ten percent said they could miss ten or more.

What Banking Crisis?: In part because of the high confidence Americans have in their own banks, the collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks hasn’t caused a significant public opinion ripple yet. Eighty-six percent of registered voters in the Fox poll were very (43%) or somewhat (43%) confident in the stability of the bank where they kept their money. In the Harvard/Harris poll, 40% said the failure of SVB and Signature would not affect them, and another 31% said they would be impacted a little. In the poll people expressed higher confidence in the Fed (62%) to handle the situation without triggering a financial crisis than in the Biden administration (47%). This poll, like others, showed agreement with the administration’s decision to guarantee all customer deposits.

What Social Security Crisis? As the French continue to protest raising the retirement age to 64, Americans are also resisting changes. In the Quinnipiac poll, 78% said they oppose raising the full retirement age for Social Security from age 67 to 70, while 17% said they support it. In a follow-up question, people were asked whether they would support raising the age if benefits would last longer. Sixty-two percent were still opposed. The Treasury Department recently reported that the depletion date for the Social Security Trust Fund would occur in 2034.

The Affordable Care Act Approval: In the new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 83% agreed strongly or somewhat that all Americans have a right to health care coverage, including 94% of Democrats, 81% of independents, and 69% of Republicans. In another question, 63% said it is the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have coverage. These views may explain the solid majority support the Affordable Care Act (ACA) engenders. In March, the Kaiser Family Foundation updated its trend on the ACA, and 62% had a favorable opinion, while 36% an unfavorable one. Ninety percent of Democrats compared to 29% of Republicans had a favorable view. Support in both parties has risen unevenly since passage in 2010.

A College Degree?: In a new Wall Street Journal/NORC poll a majority, 56%, say a college education isn’t worth it, up from 40% in 2013. Pessimism is up among most demographic groups, but people ages 18-34 in the March survey were more likely than other age groups to say that “people often graduate without specific job skills and with a large amount of debt to pay off.” According to the Journal, those with college degrees have soured, too. In the survey, only Democrats and those making over $100,000 see the value, choosing the response “people have a better chance to get a good job and earn more income over their lifetime” with the degree.

AR 15s: After the Nashville shooting, Ipsos reposted a poll they had conducted with the Washington Post in fall 2022. Twenty percent in the poll said they owned an AR-15 style rifle. A third of the owners, the top response, said they own it for protection followed by target shooting/recreation (15%). Forty-two percent said they use the rifle a few times a year, followed by 22% who use it less than once a year or 16% once or twice a year. Ten percent said they used it more than once a month. In the Fox News poll, 74% approved of Biden’s executive order to requiring criminal background checks on all gun buyers. Overall support is down from previous polls.

TikTok: In the Harvard/Harris poll, 45% wanted to ban its use, 34% allow it only with regular security screening. Ten percent wanted to allow it without conditions.