To Volpe Or Not To Volpe, That Was The New York Yankees’ Question

As usual, the expectations were high in New York Yankees’ camp this spring. When you’ve got 27 World Series championship banners flying, it comes with the territory. That said, this was a fairly unique March in Tampa. It wasn’t solely about a bunch of high-priced veterans working their way into shape in preparation for a title chase.

This time around, it was all about the kids. Time after time over the last couple of seasons and offseasons, General Manager Brian Cashman had spurned trade acquisitions and free agent signings that would have dealt away/blocked the path of a number of homegrown position player prospects that the organization held in very high esteem. This spring was their chance to shine.

And shine they did, for the most part. Outfielder Jasson Dominguez was returned to minor league camp first, but not before he dazzled onlookers with his powerful all-around game. He could be ticketed for a midseason arrival in the Bronx. Shortstop Oswald Peraza didn’t play poorly, but as we shall see in a moment, he was bypassed by a more impressive peer. Infielder/outfielder Oswaldo Cabrera made the cut, and could be a very important player for the Yanks this season, playing all over the field in a role that could make DJ LeMahieu look one-dimensional.

And then there’s Anthony Volpe. The Yankees’ 2019 1st round pick out of a New Jersey prep school was probably given only an outside shot at breaking camp with the big club coming into spring training. After all, he had only 99 AAA plate appearances, hundreds fewer than Peraza, who had logged a season-plus at that level, and even had 57 productive MLB plate appearances under his belt.

Well, Volpe came in and won the shortstop job, convincingly, with Peraza sent back to AAA. The 21-year-old hit for average and power, made all the plays and then some in the field, and ran the bases like a dervish. He did it all with a smile on his face, exhibiting a confidence beyond his years. None of this surprised me at all – though, in the end I’m certain his promotion remained a difficult call for Yankee brass.

Keeping Volpe back in the minors for as little as 15 days would have saved the club a year of service time before hitting free agency. As things stand, barring an unexpected return trip to the minors, Volpe would be eligible for free agency after the 2028 season, going into his age 27 campaign. With that extra year, that 27-year-old season – the year when many players take a quantum leap forward in performance, particularly power-wise – would also belong to the Bombers. It’s not a small deal.

It’s also an issue that has been a bone of contention between owners and players – and fans, for that matter – in recent collective bargaining talks. In the last Collective Bargaining Agreement, it was agreed that a team that promoted a player (who meets some fairly basic eligibility requirements) who went on to accrue a full year of service time and then won Rookie of the Year would earn a compensation draft pick at the end of the 1st round. The Mariners did just that with Julio Rodriguez last season, and will reap that reward in this year’s draft. The same reward is triggered if the prospect finishes in the top three of the MVP or Cy Young voting (only one draft pick per team, however, if the player hits more than one of those very high award voting milestones).

So there’s a potential high draft pick out there waiting for the Yanks if Volpe wins the ROY. That’s not a small thing. But’s it’s not the only factor at play here.

While I have always considered Volpe a sure thing, both because of his on-field talent and off-field makeup, I can certainly understand why some would not share my view. He got off to a brutal start at the AA level last season, and though he finished strong, a .251-.348-.472 line, while solid, doesn’t exactly mark one for considerable major league production the very next season. His small sample AAA numbers (.236-.313-.405) weren’t scintillating, either. Yes, I really like the 21 homers and 50 steals (and 87.7% success rate), but no, I don’t like the 30/8 K/BB in AAA.

Generally, a player with that profile, at that age, needs a little more AAA seasoning. Each year, I prepare a list of top minor league position player prospects based on performance and age relative to the league. It’s totally stat-based, and not adjusted for position, home park or other contextual factors. It basically serves as a master follow list of sorts, a starting point from which more traditional scouting methods can be utilized.

That said, Volpe ranked #11 on this list in 2021, extremely high for any shortstop – Derek Jeter never finished quite that high. He dropped all the way to #127 in 2022, largely because of his difficult start in AA.

I took this decline with a grain of salt for a number of reasons – the track record and the makeup chief among them. Another reason – Volpe and the others in his draft class had the misfortune of losing their first full minor league season to the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s a heck of a curve ball to be thrown at a teenager, and this guy came out like a house afire, not missing a beat in his 2021 season when he hit .294-.423-.604 at two A-ball levels.

The Yanks do take some risk with this decision, beyond the service time issue. If Volpe struggles early, a demotion would be possible, and no matter how good the kid’s makeup is, his development could be set back. I’m pretty confident that won’t happen, as even if the bat takes awhile to get started, he can help in so many other ways.

And that leads to my last point, and perhaps the reason that moved the Yanks past the tipping point decision-wise. There are going to be considerably more stolen bases in major league baseball this season thanks to the new rules that include a limitation on pickoff throws and an increase in the size of the bases. Based on spring training trends, steals project to be up by about 30% this year, to the highest level since 2012. That is the most major league-ready aspect of Volpe’s game, and he’s not afraid to use it.

The (very) early returns? Just fine. He reached base in 4 of his first 11 plate appearances this weekend on two hits and two walks, making all of the plays at short and not looking at all out of place. Most impressively, he stole a base in each of the first three games.

There are plenty of interesting rookies to watch around both leagues this season, like Cardinal slugger Jordan Walker and Diamondback speedster Corbin Carroll, to name just two. The juxtaposition of the drama of the Yankee youth movement and their sky high expectations elevates Volpe to must-see TV status for this onlooker.