U.S. Auto Sales: GM, Ford, Tesla To Lead ‘Unexpectedly Strong’ First Quarter

U.S. auto sales are likely to grow more than expected in the first quarter on the back of rising vehicle inventories and fleet sales, offsetting elevated prices and high auto loan rates.

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General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) are teeing up to report Q1 new vehicle sales on Monday. Toyota Motor (TM) and Honda (HMC) are also due to report Q1 U.S. sales Monday. Ford (F) should follow a day later.

Tesla (TSLA) is likely to report global EV deliveries this coming weekend.

The Q1 sales pace is likely to reach an “unexpectedly strong” 15 million units, an increase of more than 6% vs. 14.1 million units in the year-ago quarter, Cox Automotive said.

GM is expected to be the top seller for the quarter.

Tesla, which lowered prices in Q1 to fuel demand, is set to be the top luxury seller. Its sales are likely to be more than double that of BMW (BMWYY) or Mercedes (DDAIF). In fact, Tesla’s U.S. market share is seen surpassing 5% for the first time.

Here is how automakers performed in Q1 vs. the expectations of analysts at Cox Automotive. The results show auto sales volume, as well as sales growth or decline vs. a year ago.

General Motors

Q1 sales estimate: 587,020 vehicles, up 15.3% vs. Q1 2022 but down 5.1% vs. Q4 2022.

Results: Check back Monday.

GM stock jumped 8.8% to 36.68 in weekly stock market action. Shares remain below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Ford

Q1 sales estimate: 477,755 vehicles, up 11.3% vs. a year ago.

Results: Check back later.

Ford stock leapt 9.5% for the week, regaining its 50-day line on Friday.

Toyota Motor

Q1 sales estimate: 464,530 vehicles, down 9.7% vs. a year ago.

Results: Check back Monday.

Toyota Motor stock climbed 3.7% for the week, back above the 50-day line.

Stellantis

Q1 sales estimate: 359,830 vehicles, down 11.2% vs. a year ago.

Results: Check back Monday.

Stellantis stock advanced 5.45% to 18.19 for the week, up all five days. Shares are forming a cup-with-handle base with an 18.96 buy point, after finding support at the 50-day line.

Honda

Q1 sales estimate: 265,880 vehicles, down 0.2%.

Results: Check back Monday.

Honda stock climbed 3.1% this past week, after finding recent support at the 50-day line.

Tesla

Q1 U.S. sales estimate: 180,993 vehicles, up 39.5%

Tesla will report global quarterly deliveries. The EV giant does not break down sales by country.

TSLA stock nearly 9% to 207.46, breaking out past a buy point Friday.

2023 U.S. Auto Sales

After a strong start to the year, Cox has hiked its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast to 14.2 million. That is up more than 3% from 2022.

But the firm’s analysts warned that Q1’s “upside surprise” won’t last.

“We continue to believe supply constraints and affordability issues will put a ceiling on what’s possible in the year ahead,” said Cox Auto Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke.

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