Nobody Can Take ‘Sure Thing’ Forte Down — Can They?

In a way, tomorrow afternoon’s $1-million Florida Derby matters less to its heavy favorite Forte and to his storied Texan trainer Todd Pletcher than it does to the rest of the surprisingly beefy 12-horse field and their connections, some of whom are straining so hard to get up and over the points fence to gain an invite to the Kentucky Derby that we can almost hear their tack snapping apart. A signature, but nevertheless shocking, stat: With 90 Derby points going into tomorrow’s feature at Gulfstream, Forte carries almost double the number of points held by the rest of the field combined. His nearest competitor in this race in Derby points — Cyclone Mischief, currently the fourth-favorite at 8-1 in the morning line — has just fifteen.

True, Derby points can be deceptive — as can be all curlicues of past performance, pedigree and current training status in handicapping — but as a general metric for the maturity and appetite of this or that athlete to get out there and run, it’s a fair one. Ok, so here’s a fun parlor game: Forget the “Derby points.” Five wins in six lifetime starts tells us that Forte does love to get out there and run.

That, plus having Irad Ortiz Jr. in the navigator’s seat, will be the monumental problem faced by the Florida Derby’s second tier of runners when the starters fling open the gates at Gulfstream tomorrow, at 6:43 p.m. EDT. It’s not Forte’s style to go wire-to-wire, and he’s breaking from the 11-hole, which outside stall will make it tougher for him to assume an early lead anyway, although these are three-year-olds and by definition no style is cut in stone. But if he holds to form, the run he does bring will be big.

Before we dive into the particulars of tomorrow’s field and their highly fluid chances against the aptly-named favorite, herewith, a refresher on the field, the post positions and the morning line. Gulfstream does tend to favor speed, and Forte’s question, should he actually have one, is

Florida Derby: Post position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line

1. Jungfrau, Bill Mott, Paco Lopez, 20-1

2. West Coast Cowboy, Saffie Joseph Jr., Sonny Leon, 20-1

3. Shaq Diesel, Renaldo Richards, Miguel Vasquez, 30-1

4. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, Luis Saez, 10-1

5. Mr. Peeks, Saffie Joseph Jr., Edwin Gonzalez, 30-1

6. Nautical Star, Saffie Joseph Jr., Leonel Reyes, 30-1

7. Il Miracolo, Antonio Sano, Jesus Rios, 30-1

8. Mr. Ripple, Saffie Joseph Jr., Edgard Zayas, 30-1

9. Cyclone Mischief, Dale Romans, Javier Castellano, 8-1

10. Fort Bragg, Tim Yakteen, Joel Rosario, 5-1

11. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 4-5

12. Dubyuhnell, Danny Gargan, Jose Ortiz, 6-1

(Source: Gulfstream Park, 3/31/2023)

Gulfstream is known among the racing community as a speed-favoring track — as opposed to, say, Belmont, whose sandy Long Island dirt and its enormous turns favor stamina — and that, tomorrow in Florida, coupled with Forte’s heavy outside placement will be factors that he and Ortiz will have to overcome if they are to live up to their favored status. Put another way, the track and the shorter length of the Florida Derby, at one-and-an-eighth miles, are a disadvantage for Forte that can be exploited by any horse in this field that wants to take the competition to him.

In order of post position, that means that the Dale-Romans-trained Cyclone Mischief, the Tim Yakteen-trained Fort Bragg, and the Danny Gargan-trained Dubyuhnell who are, also, bracketing Forte in the starting gate, are the athletes who are likeliest to be able to do that. A bit closer to the rail, the 10-1 Mage, trained by Gustavo Delgado, has a shot, but Parenthetically, Forte’s less-than even morning line odds are likely to go lower once Gulfstream’s windows open, so, for those players who care most about their exotics, Mage and Cyclone Mischief will be seen as helpmeets to up the payout.

There are many ways for Forte to win the race, but, given his obvious talents, there are fewer ways for him to lose it. Bluntly put, for the less-favored competitors in the second tier to get their shot, Forte has to be given a terrible trip, which is to say, he has to be boxed in by traffic which, in turn, has to be difficult enough to confront him with too much to distance to make up as the finish line suddenly rushes at him. That’s what running on a speed-favoring track means: You have to get out and away smartly.

This would theoretically leave runners such as Cyclone Mischief or Fort Bragg, or any of the others, the opportunity to be there to mop up — provided of course that they keep their heads and are in position to take advantage of such a circumstance. Arguing against that possibility is Irad Ortiz, a Houdini a not getting trapped no matter how tumultuous the break, one of the most adroit, winningest riders in America.