MATIC Holds the $1 Support but Whales May Trigger Lower Prices

MATIC has traded below $1.20 since March 17. Strong retail demand and market reaction to a recent Polygon product launch have kept MATIC above $1. But on-chain data shows that crypto whales remain unconvinced of a rebound. 

On-chain data reveals a large concentration of MATIC buyers between $0.99 and $1.10, suggesting that many investors have unrealized losses in the asset.  

MATIC Whales Are Still Selling Despite Recent Gains

Polygon (MATIC) is widely regarded as the leading scaling solution to Ethereum. As the price slipped below $1.05 on March 27, Polygon developers announced the scheduled launch of the zkEVM. The latest product update is set to improve privacy and accelerate transaction throughput on the Ethereum-compatible network. 

Positive market reactions to the product launch appear to have pushed MATIC above $1.10 on March 28. However, on-chain data shows that crypto whales are not convinced of an imminent MATIC  rebound. 

According to on-chain data from Santiment, a strategic group of MATIC whales has been taking profits since late February. 

The yellow line below shows how the cluster of whales holding 10 million to 100 million MATIC has depleted their balances since late February. Between Feb 22 and March 28, the whales sold 96 million MATIC worth nearly $100 million. 

As observed above, the whales on the Polygon network appear to have intensified the sell-off, with nearly 26 million coins worth $30 million sold in the past week. With their history of timing trades accurately, if the whale sell-off continues, MATIC could struggle to enter another bullish price push in the coming weeks. 

Similarly, the bearish outlook is validated by the dearth of whale activity on the Polygon network. On-chain data shows that the number of whale transactions recorded on the Polygon network has dropped by more than 50% since mid-February, according to Santiment, only 266 MATIC transactions were recorded worth over $100,000 at the close of Feb 17, and by the recent count on March 28, the figure has dropped to 120. 

Historical data reveals that a drop in large transactions has frequently preceded previous MATIC price slumps. As things stand, it appears that whale investors remain unconvinced about the future price prospects of MATIC.

Unless the whales begin to accumulate more coins, MATIC could lose its $1 support in the coming weeks. 

MATIC Price Prediction: $0.90 Seems Likely

Polygon (MATIC) could soon drop toward $0.90, according to IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of Money (GIOM) data. 

As seen below, MATIC has significant support around the $1 zone. 11,400 wallet addresses hold nearly 4 billion MATIC coins around the $1 zone. If MATIC loses this support, it could trigger a sell-off which could see MATIC approach $0.90, the minimum price that 55,000 addresses paid for 1.2 billion coins. 

Still, Polygon bulls can invalidate this bearish outlook if MATIC can break above $1.20. But around the $1.20 zone, 56,000 addresses holding 1.7 billion coins could attempt to take some profit. 

If the $1.20 resistance does not derail the rally, then MATIC could approach $1.45 before hitting another potential sell wall of 75,000 wallets holding 117 million coins.